EURUSD has been trending lower on the short-term time frames, with a potential retracement opportunity presenting itself on the 4-hour chart. Price previously broke below support around 1.0850-1.0900 before dipping close to the 1.0700 handle then pulling back.
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 50-61.8% levels line up with the broken support zone. This might hold as resistance since it is also close to the dynamic inflection points at the moving averages.
In addition, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA so the selloff is likely to carry on. Stochastic and RSI are both indicating overbought conditions, which means that buying pressure is already exhausted and that sellers might take over, pushing EURUSD back to the 1.0700 area or much lower.
Data from the US economy came in mixed yesterday, as the ADP non-farm employment change report surprised to the upside while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations. The FOMC minutes confirmed that members were seeing improvements in the labor market but were still uncertain about inflationary prospects.
As for the euro zone, services PMI readings also came in mixed but the strong figures were enough to inspire profit-taking off the euro short positions. German factory orders and retail sales are up for release today, with the former expected to show a 0.1% uptick and the latter likely to post a 0.5% gain.
Only the initial jobless claims report is due from the US today, with traders likely holding out for the NFP report due tomorrow. A 203K increase in hiring is eyed, although market watchers might pay closer attention to the average hourly earnings figure, which might indicate a 0.2% gain.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way