DaiIly Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading
•    Equities firmer but two-way, majors follow-suit
•    EURO scores highs on stop-driven trade, closes firm
•    Technical levels in most pairs breached

Overnight Preview

•    Look for the USD to remain two-way but under pressure
•    Tomorrow’s data likely to continue long-liquidation

Looking Ahead to Thursday

All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•    8:30am USD Trade Balance
•    8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
•    8:30am USD Import Prices m/m
•    10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage


The USD lost ground today after a mixed open this morning; traders note that volumes remained lighter but there was no doubt which side the orders were on. After a slightly higher open in Equities this morning the prospects for the USD tracked the rise and fall in Equities during the day; turning lower into mid-day stocks posted losses before recovering to trade back through the opening range. The majors tracked the rise and fall through the day ultimately to end better on the day but off the traded highs. EURO rallied through stops said to be resting above the 1.3050 area for a high print at 1.3072 before dropping back under 1.3000 area briefly; overnight lows at 1.2902 went unchallenged in New York trade and the rate regained the 1.3000 handle to close in the 1.3030 area of previous resistance. Traders note that volumes were lighter into the highs despite stops being triggered. GBP was unable to match EURO’s rise but still managed to hold above the 1.4800 area without making a new high during New York trade.  Cross spreaders in EURO/GBP were noted as lifting EURO as that rate rallied keeping some pressure on the Sterling side of the pair. USD/JPY made a high print at 93.04 but failed to find stops said to be resting above the 93.00 area; traders note the pressure is on the pair despite the better action in Equities. USD/CHF dropped into stops located at the 1.2000 area for a low print at 1.1925 well below the technical support area of the 1.1980 area; closing around the 1.1960 level suggests that the rate is finally turned the corner for more losses. Analysts say the 1.1880 area is key to hold the rate higher but traders remind that the rate is over-bought on some studies suggesting further pressure will result. USD/CAD also was under pressure making lows at 1.2484 overnight and finished lower on the day but the rate is well off the lows around the 1.2600 area into the close. In my view, across the board the greenback is showing additional signs of topping after today’s lower action. More US data is due tomorrow expected to be unfriendly to the USD  so all things considered it looks like the USD will continue lower through the end of the week. Look for more two-way action overnight as traders continue to expect a long-liquidation break in the USD.  

GBP/USD Daily  

Resistance 3:  1.5200
Resistance 2:  1.5100/10
Resistance 1:  1.5050
Latest New York: 1.4800
Support 1:  1.4550
Support 2:  1.4460/70
Support 3:  1.4420


Despite rally in EURO rate holds near opening levels, firms after yesterday’s drop. Rate continues to hold support at 1.4740. More upside now due within 24 hours if dips continue to be bought above the 1.4720 area. Close near the 1.4850 area or above will confirm willing buyers on the dips; might have to wait for tomorrow. Aggressive traders can look to ADD to open longs anytime looking for a push through and a close back above 1.5000. Some spillover from EURO likely. Good bids reported but supply seen from semi-official names overnight. Traders note solid two-way action. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far; OK to buy if flat on a dip. Profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight again. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side.
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Median Inflation Expectations
6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations

Resistance 3:  1.3150
Resistance 2:  1.3120
Resistance 1:  1.3080
Latest New York:  1.3016
Support 1:  1.2750
Support 2:  1.2680
Support 3:  1.2600


Rate continues to hold above previous support. Spillover from GBP helps hold the rate above support at 1.2950 area but lack of follow-through above 1.3050 a caution to the bulls. Buyers are willing on dips. Possible reversal now in play but the rate needs to firm above the 1.3050 area now that stops are cleared in my view. Bids seen on dips traders say. Dips likely to be bought hard now that sellers couldn’t make a stand over 1.3000 with confidence on the third try this week; stops at 1.3080 and above likely the next target. Aggressive traders can ADD to open longs again.  Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.  
Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:45am EUR French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
3:05am EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
4:00am EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin

Forex Analysis by: – Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

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