Daily Analysis – 17/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 17, 2009

Fundamental Analysis, Australia

• Tuesday: Reserve Bank’s Board November Minutes (Text Report).
• Wednesday: Westpac Leading Index (Previous 1.1%, Expected N/A).
• Thursday: Average Weekly Wages QoQ (Previous 1.2%, Expected N/A)
& YoY (Previous 6.1%, Expected N/A).

More on AUD/USD and other currencies on Forexpros.

Euro Dollar
The Euro moved in both directions, breaking both the support & resistance specified in yesterday’s report, without being able to reach the target in both cases. We have witnessed a swift move during yesterday’s trading, when the Euro dropped very fast to 1.4879 only to rise with the same light speed to 1.5014. This move has founded an important support at 1.4879, where the rising trendline from November 3rd bottom meets yesterday’s low. If this support is broken, we will be heading to a test of Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4782, which is also an important level. As for the resistance, after the price behavior we witnessed in the past few days, the area 1.4982-1.5018 became a gathering for several short-term resistance levels that are very close to each other. We will choose the lower limit of that area as our resistance of the day, if 1.4982 is broken, we will see price levels that have not been seen this year, as we will target 1.5082 first, then 1.5145.

• 1.4934: short-term support.
• 1.4879: the rising trendline from Nov 3rd bottom, and yesterday’s low.
• 1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.

• 1.4982: the lower limit of the resistance area 1.4982-1.5018.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5145: previous resistance from 2008.


Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 89.46, and reached the first suggested target 88.82 successfully, in a long awaited visit to areas below 89. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, after establishing a support at 88.90. If this level holds, we will see a correction of yesterday’s drop, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.88. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.

• 88.90: obvious support on the hourly chart.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.

• 89.27: Nov 11th low.
• 89.88: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
• 90.73: intraday top.

Analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji.

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