Daily Analysis – 29/09/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep. 29, 2009

Euro Dollar

Moving steady inside the falling channel on the intraday charts, the Euro approached the top of the channel five times, without breaking it, which indicates that the falling trend (for the short-term is still safe. As long as price does not break this channel to the upside, the short-term downtrend will go on, and try to reach the end of the channel, which is below 1.45, during this week. On the other hand, if price manage to break this channel to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach new tops over 1.48, this week also. The most important resistance is 1.4639, which represents the top of the falling channel. Breaking this "top" will mean that we are on the way to areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776. The most important support is 1.4597, and breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.

• 1.4597: short-term support.
• 1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
• 1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.

• 1.4639: the top of the falling channel on the intraday charts.
• 1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week..
• 1.4776: previous resistance.


The most important support 88.74 held and gave the Dollar-Yen a chance to break the resistance 89.68, and as expected went back above 90. The price stopped accurately (as we can see on the chart) at the previous support 90.20, which provided us with the daily lows for 11th & 16th on the month. That is why 90.20 will be the most important support for today. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. A break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.33, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. The most important support for today is 89.23 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low, and the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts. If we break 89.23 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.

• 89.23: Fibonacci 50%, and the bottom of the rising trend channel on intraday charts.
• 88.56: previous intraday support.
• 87.97: Jan 23rd low.

• 90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
• 90.90: previous intraday support/resistance.
• 91.33: the limit of the downtrend, the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther T. Marji

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