EURAUD seems to be completing a complex double bottom pattern on its daily chart, with price currently testing the neckline around the 1.4400 major psychological mark. An upside breakout past this resistance would mark the start of a longer-term reversal, possibly lasting by around 700 pips or the same height as the chart pattern.
On the other hand, if the 1.4400 major psychological resistance holds, price could resume its drop to the near-term support at 1.4400. Further losses past this point could lead to a tumble until the previous lows around the 1.3700 handle.
Stochastic is indicating overbought conditions, favoring a move lower for the pair. However, the short-term EMA is showing signs of crossing above the long-term EMA, an early signal that a reversal is underway. Price has also broken past the long-term EMA, which has held as a dynamic resistance level in the past.
The main event risk for this swing trade setup is the debt deadline for Greece on Friday, during which the possibility of a Grexit might be discussed once more. If the odds favor a debt default for the country, talks of debt contagion and euro instability might weigh on the shared currency.
Another event risk for this setup is the RBA interest rate statement, during which the central bank might stand pat. After all, they just cut interest rates in their previous policy statement while giving a relatively optimistic outlook. Dovish remarks this time could be the catalyst for a neckline breakout.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way