AUDJPY Ascending Triangle Breakdown (Feb 12, 2015)

AUDJPY broke below its ascending triangle support on the 1-hour time frame, indicating that further losses are possible for the pair. Price could fall by as much as 200 pips, which is roughly the same height as the chart pattern. With that, a move towards the next support area around 91.00-91.50 is possible.


Stochastic is already in the oversold area but is still pointing down, indicating that there’s a bit of selling pressure left. In that case, a deeper selloff to the 90.00 handle is likely if rate cut expectations continue to weigh on the Australian currency.


The economy lost 12.2K jobs in January versus expectations of a 4.7K decline in hiring. This was enough to bring the jobless rate up from 6.1% to 6.4% – its 10-year high – for the month, even as the participation rate held steady at 64.8%.


Recall that the RBA already cut interest rates in this month’s interest rate statement, citing that unemployment could peak higher than initially estimated and that the economy could undergo a degree of spare capacity. With the recent jobs disappointment, analysts expect the central bank to lower rates again in March or in April, earlier than the next anticipated rate cut in June.


Risk aversion could also keep this pair weak, as geopolitical tensions prevent traders from taking on higher-yielding holdings. This is in favor of the lower-yielding Japanese yen for now, although Japan has also seen its share of weak figures.

Inflation figures have continued to disappoint in Japan, as weaker oil prices have made their battle with deflation more challenging. It doesn’t help that household spending and retail sales are still on the weak end, as consumers haven’t recovered from the April sales tax hike. Talks of potential easing from the BOJ might lead to a bounce for this pair.


By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way