Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 6, 2013)


The US dollar lost ground to some of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading as risk sentiment seemed to improve and favor the higher-yielding currencies. As for economic data, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI report came in stronger than expected as the reading climbed from 52.2 to 56.0, outpacing the consensus at 53.2. Only the trade balance is up for release today and the deficit is projected to narrow from 45 billion USD to 43.1 billion USD.


The euro was able to hold on to its recent gains against the dollar, as EUR/USD continued to trade close to the 1.3300 major psychological resistance. Data from the euro zone was mixed as the Spanish and Italian PMIs came close to expectations while the region-wide Sentix investor confidence report fell short. The actual reading improved from -12.6 to -4.9, lower than the estimate at 9.8. No major reports are due from the euro zone today, as the only releases are the Italian industrial production and German factory orders.


The British pound had a stellar performance yesterday as Cable inched close to the 1.5400 major psychological level. UK services PMI came in much higher than expected as it jumped from 56.9 to 60.2, higher than the estimate at 57.4. The manufacturing production is up for release today and it is expected to show a 0.9% rebound from the 0.8% decline seen last time.


There are no major releases from Switzerland recently, leaving USD/CHF sensitive to US data. The pair was able to rally past the .9300 handle in yesterday’s trading but ended up erasing most of its gains anyway. Consolidation could be the name of the game for USD/CHF today as the medium-tier US trade balance release isn’t expected to cause a lasting reaction.


The yen continued to edge higher against most of its counterparts, although longer-term time frames still point at consolidation. There were no major reports released from Japan recently but the low-tier leading indicators release printed a weaker than expected reading of 107%.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The bloodbath continued for the comdoll gang, as the Kiwi and Loonie underperformed. For the Kiwi, news of Fonterra’s product recall continued to add selling pressure while the Loonie was unable to draw buying power as Canadian banks were on a holiday. The RBA decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% in their rate statement today and surprisingly triggered a positive reaction from AUD. According to their statement, the RBA is concerned about global and domestic economic performance and analysts are pricing in another rate cut for the year.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way.