USD – Is A Calm Market Possible?

The USD weakened against the EUR and the GBP on Thursday in markets that traded with somewhat tamer results. While Wall Street actually turned in a good day of gains across the major indexes, the currencies turned in rather subtle ranges taking into consideration the volatility witnessed the past few weeks. Of note was the rather disappointing number from the Prelim GDP of 3.0%, which missed its estimated gain of 3.5%. The weekly Unemployment Claims also were worse than feared with a figure of 460k. Today the Chicago PMI and the Consumer Sentiment reading from the University of Michigan are on the calendar. Both publications are anticipated to be near the previous outcomes. The question however is how many market participants will be around to watch the actual statistics when they are released.

The Memorial Day holiday is this coming Monday and traders may see light volume in the broad marketplace today. Having said that, the markets have produced plenty of surprises the past month and counting on anything for certain may be like wishing on the stars. The USD still finds itself within the stronger parts of its ranges versus the EUR and GBP and going into what will become a long holiday weekend for many, traders would be best advised to monitor news that can affect sentiment closely. The fact that the GDP number was weaker than expected didn’t ruffle as many feathers as might be expected when judging results on Wall Street. However after a month of negative trading the day’s gains may have been more of a natural bounce. The Chicago PMI should be monitored because both the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philly Fed numbers earlier this month proved sluggish. Going into the holiday weekend, traders should be ready for anything.

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