Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD loses ground but attempts a recovery
• Stops run
• Volumes moderate
• Two-way action likely
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Index
• 10:00am USD ISM Manufacturing Prices
• 10:00am USD Construction Spending m/m
• Tentative USD Domestic Vehicle Sales
Expect ISM to remain weak.
The USD is two-way and whippy today after a losing start to the day. Across the board the USD made monthly lows to end the quarter no doubt creating a lot of risk-aversion liquidation ahead of US data and the holiday-shortened trade week. GBP has upside resistance at 1.9960 area challenged more than once on several rallies but each time the market backed off to trade lower. Into the London fix rumors of buy-needs kept the rate firm but once the fix was gone traders sold the rate lower and the GBP made lows for the day at 1.9878; rate continued to whipsaw short-term accounts as the GBP rallied off the low to trade above the 1.9940 area briefly again. For the most part the EURO had a similar day but dropping Oil prices helped to keep the pressure on more-so than GBP. EURO had a high print at 1.5837 but once the highs were in during European trade the EURO settled back to trade lower all day. Traders note that in both pairs volumes were moderate and with a lower close likely all offers. USD/JPY remained on the defensive most of the morning but staged a modest recovery after the London fix as well coming close to the overnight highs with a New York high at 106.25 areas. Traders say the rate is likely to remain two-way as Asian sovereigns have an appetite for USD on the dips while exporters are on the offer during any strength. The rate held the 105.00 handle on the morning break suggesting that a rotation higher might be good for a test of the breakdown area around the 107.50 area near-term; should that be the case there is a lot of volatility there. Swissy weakened as well but held lows at 1.0130 which were never challenged in New York trade. USD/CHF likely to weaken more but the rate wants to rotate high and was the only major pair higher on the day today. Loonie rallied as well and cleared the 1.0200 handle briefly suggesting a lot of two-way action is coming. The rate settled back after scoring a high at 1.0215 in two way action. Traders note that volume were good in all pairs and more two-way action is due across the board. In my view, the Greenback is set to rotate higher ahead of Non-Farm payrolls later in the week. Although whipsaw is likely as well, I think your best strategy is to sell rallies and wait for the upside correction in USD to fail.
Resistance 3: 1.5900
Resistance 2: 1.5880
Resistance 1: 1.5830/40
Latest New York: 1.5742
Support 1: 1.5720
Support 2: 1.5680
Support 3: 1.5650
Rate not supported by higher Oil today suggesting a near-term top. Closing lower suggests some selling pressure is developing. Stops noted under the previous lows layered under 1.5700 traders say. Closes near the 1.5800 handle from last week, more upside likely but a pullback is needed. Asian sovereign selling seen overnight. US news today likely to create volatility so be ready for whipsaw or a reversal. Should cable break—EURO could go with it. Watch for model accounts on the bid today; those guys love to buy highs. The 50 bar MA likely to offer support should the rate fall back; bids will likely be in the 1.5580 area or so on any meaningful correction. COT data show a flip to EURO longs; could be a clue for a top.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change
5:00am EUR Unemployment Rate
Resistance 3: 107.80
Resistance 2: 107.20/30
Resistance 1: 106.50
Latest New York: 106.23
Support 1: 10500/104.90
Support 2: 104.50
Support 3: 104.20
Rate continues on follow-on weakness, strong bids noted suggesting a whipsaw bounce is coming. Close back over the 106.00 area suggests a rally soon. Today’s dip under the 105.00 handle lacked conviction and a potential rally may develop early; sell that rally if we get it. In the meantime, OK to liquidate shorts and wait. Exponential reversal signal still valid, rate is two-way but weaker each day. Stops in the 105.80 area cleared overnight; traders note stops were both ways. COT data show a flip to Yen longs suggesting a bottom is in.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
7:50pm JPY Monetary Base y/y
Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
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