Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 27, 2009

The U.S. Census Bureau will publish the Monthly Core Durable Goods Orders report tomorrow (Oct 27th ).
The report measures the change in the total value of new orders for durable goods, excluding transportation.
Because aircraft orders are very volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends.
Higher reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict last months reading of 0.00% is expected to rise to 0.50%

Euro Dollar

Exactly as it was expected, the Euro collapsed the minute it broke 1.4992, and stopped only 4 pips before our target 1.4840. It is only normal to see it trying to rise now and trying to get back above 1.49, but breaking the trendline put the Euro in a negative technical situation that it will not escape by going back above 1.49. We will maintain a negative attitude towards the Euro as long as it is below short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 1.4978. We expect the rising correction to stop somewhere between 1.4927 & 1.4978, and then to continue the drop towards new targets in the 1.47 area, most attractive of which are Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% support levels at 1.4771 & 1.4702. In this case, 1.4702 will hold a special importance, as the first important support for the medium-term in these areas. Short-term support is 1.4861 and it is provided by the rising trendline from yesterdays low, on the intraday charts. Breaking this line would mean a continuation of the down move, towards our targets 1.4771 and may be 1.4702. Short-term resistance is 1.4978, a break here would be a surprise of some kind, but if it does happen, we will target a retest of the broken trendline at 1.5019, and then 1.5082.

• 1.4861: the rising trendline from yesterday’s low on the intraday charts.
• 1.4771: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move from 1.4480.
• 1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.

• 1.4927: Fibonacci 38.2% for yesterday’s drop.
• 1.4978: Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday’s drop, and the most important resistance for the time being.
• 1.5019: the retest level of the broken trendline.


As expected, Dollar-Yen continued this slow rise, and we still believe that it is heading very slowly probably towards our previously suggested target area 92.52-58, which could be an area for the price to reverse from, and start correcting the whole rise from 87.98. Short-term resistance is 92.27 and breaking it would mean we are heading towards the target area 92.52-58, or may be to a more exciting and attractive target, which is 92.88: Fibonacci 50% resistance for the whole down move from 97.77 to 87.98. And since the 2 targets are not far from each other, the whole area combining them (92.52-92.88) is considered one wide resistance area that we expect is able to reverse the direction on the short-term, and initiate a correction that we can not talk about its size now. The most important support is 91.98, provided by the rising trendline on the hourly chart. If broken, we will target 90.90 where the known previous resistance awaits. And Since the RSI is standing in the middle of the way, the odds of going in either direction look close.

• 91.98: the rising trendline on the hourly.
• 91.26: the important support area from last week.
• 90.90: previous known resistance.

• 92.27: short-term resistance.
• 92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
• 92.88: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 97.77 to 87.98.

Forex trading analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther T. Marji

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