EUR/USD Hits Two Months’ High

The European currency may gain further after Germany rebuffed a U.S. plan to increase fiscal stimulus to help pull the global economy out of recession. The fact the Euro-Zone nations avoided making any fresh commitments to extend spending, should encourage more investments in Europe and, as a result, to boost the EUR currency.

Economic News

USD – USD Hits 5 Weeks Low against the EUR

The Dollar pared losses against the EUR on Monday after the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s manufacturing index fell to a record low in March, adding to worries about the U.S. economy. The USD experienced some gains, rising to $1.3000 from around $1.3055 yesterday, however it still remained down 0.9% during the trading session.

Moreover, economic data published yesterday imply that the U.S. recession is likely to deepen further. To give an example of the type of negative data emanating from the American economy, the Empire State Manufacturing Index had its worst showing since 2001! This is also a signal that economic difficulties are starting to spread from the financial sector into the mainstream economy. Investors will have to adapt themselves to the upcoming economic hardships as these changes will not rectify themselves within a short period of time.

Later today, there are several important economic data releases coming out of the U.S. The most important of these publications is the Building Permits indicator at 12:30 GMT. The release is expected to be lower than the previous figure, meaning the USD could continue a level of bearishness today. Traders should stay close to the market as there is a strong chance to capitalize on the fluctuations which will likely follow this release.

EUR – EUR Gains against Major Currencies

The EUR experienced a bullish trading session yesterday, as it appreciated against most of its major currency pairs. The 16 nation’s currency hit a five-week high against the USD yesterday as gains in European stocks signaled investors’ willingness to take on more risk.

A rise in Euro-Zone inflation last month helped push the EUR above $1.30 for the first time since Feb. 10 in early trading. A pledge by the G20 finance ministers during a weekend summit to double the resources available to aid emerging market economies also lifted spirits.

In addition, European Central Bank (ECB) President Trichet said last week that deflationary risks were negligible, even as he left the door open to another Interest Rate cut. The central bank, which expects inflation to average just 0.4% this year, has already reduced its key Rate by more than half since early October to a record low of 1.5%.

Looking ahead to today, the most important financial indicator scheduled to be released from Europe is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Analysts are forecasting this figure to slightly decrease from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to boost the EUR in the short-term.

JPY – Yen Slides on Weakening Economy

The Japanese Yen completed yesterday’s trading session with mixed results versus the major currencies. The JPY fell against the EUR yesterday, pushing the oft traded currency pair to 1.2171. The JPY experienced similar behavior against the GBP as the pair rose from 137.50 to 138.50 by days end.

The Yen’s safe-haven appeal has, however, lost some of its luster due to a rapid deterioration in Japan’s economy, with the trade balance falling into deficit, and political uncertainty with an unpopular government facing an election that must be held by October. The Bank of Japan is seen likely to keep Interest Rates unchanged at 0.10% at a two-day policy meeting that ends on Wednesday. The BOJ is also expected to discuss whether to raise its purchases of government debt but market players are unsure if the central bank will make such a move at this week’s board meeting. The Bank may be forced to increase purchases of government bonds if the country’s economic slump deepens suddenly or banks start to fail, moving closer to a quantitative easing policy it has been trying to avoid.

OIL – Crude Oil Prices Soar $3 Higher

The Crude Oil’s gains on Monday were helped in part by an early rally in U.S. and European stock markets on growing confidence in the banking sector, which outweighed Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decision not to cut production target further.
The cartel which met on Sunday, decided not to cut output further, but rather concentrate on existing cuts that total 4.2 million barrels per day since September. Some analysts said OPEC’s adherence to the existing cuts might be enough to offset falling demand and reverse the recent increases in oil inventories in many countries, including the world’s largest oil consumer, the United States. However, in light of U.S grim economic data which confirms that long recession in the world’s largest economy is far from over, the Crude might fall below $47 giving up its previous session’s gains.

Technical News

It appears that the bullish trend may have run out of strength as the current price level pushed the pair into the overbought territory on the daily chart’s RSI, indicating that a downward reversal may occur later today. The hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic also appears to be showing an imminent bearish cross, which supports this notion. Going short with tight stops might be the right choice today.
A bullish formation on the daily chart is still intact; however the momentum is already quite low. The 4 hour chart is maintaining a slightly bearish indication yet with no distinct conclusion. Also, there is a bearish cross forming on the hourly chart, indicating that the bearish signal is in place. Traders are advised to hold for the breach and then swing into it.
The pair is continuing to provide mixed results, and is now trading around the 98.70 level. The hourly chart demonstrates a flat line ever since yesterday. However, the weekly chart’s Momentum oscillator still shows steep downward pressure. Traders are advised to wait for clearer indications on the hourly level before joining the trade.
There appears to be a leveling-off in the price of this pair as the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart appears to be tightening, signaling an impending volatile price movement. Most oscillators show a lack of distinct direction. On the other hand, range-trading behavior, allows traders to cut profits from buying on dips and selling on highs.

The Wild Card

After the recent drop in value, the price of this pair appears to now be floating in the over-sold territory on the RSI of both the hourly and daily charts, signaling an upward correction may occur in the nearest future. The recent bullish cross on the 4-hour chart’s Slow Stochastic heavily supports this notion. As the Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart begin to tighten, a volatile upward correction may be occurring in today’s early trading hours. forex traders can take advantage of this imminent volatile movement by setting an early long position with tight stops.

Written by: