Forex weekly analysis: 31-10-2010

EUR/USD Daily graph:

The pair is currently navigating between 1.4058 (resistance) and 1.3702 (support). This navigation started about 3 weeks ago after a serious uptrend.
Actually the pair is on its way to the upper level. Our analyses suggest that the resistance will be tested again. There are several possible interpretations once the resistance will be reached:
1.     On a daily graph, a vain breach occurs, indicating a reversal which should last until the support mentioned earlier. This should create an opportunity to go “Short” until 1.3702.
2.     The pair is reaching the resistance, without crossing it. In this case, waiting at least a session and a half and, once a descending configuration is identified on one-hour graph, and, only after, going “Short” could be a good option.
3.     The resistance is crossed and broken. It may be better to go “Long” only after the breach and its correction, by looking for an increasing configuration in one-hour graph.
Daily graph:

A clear navigation between 1.6020 (resistance) and 1.5658 (support), started a few weeks ago, is identifiable on this daily graph. However, during the last session, the navigation may have been stopped since the pair crossed the resistance mentioned and closed above it on the resistance 1.6040.
Our actual hypothesis: the navigation stopped and a new uptrend started. Nevertheless, this hypothesis has to be confirmed in order to beneficiate from this new situation. We would wait to the following template:
·        The pair keeps growing.
·        Technical correction which won’t cross the support of 1.6020 (daily support) downward.
·        Renewal of the increasing process trough the identification of an increasing configuration, vain breach or reversal template.
Once the above template occurred, an opportunity to go “Long” may be created.

Daily graph:
The last three weeks corrected the previous bearish trend , until the resistance of 0.9933. As you can see on graph, this is quite an important resistance zone. The pair stopped exactly on the resistance and started to decrease back. After such a correction (~ 450 pips), our analysts anticipate the renewal of the original downtrend.
The pair is likely to reach the last low occurred at 0.9462 and to test it.
We suggest being careful with longer term transactions in order to avoid potential losses in case of suddenly reversal of the trend.

Daily graph:
The last three sessions show a clear navigation between 81.96 (resistance) and 80.42 (support). Actually, the pair is on the low point of the navigation. There are two possible ways to approach the situation:
1.     Vain breach (test) below the support, followed by an uptrend until the high level of the navigation, creating the opportunity to go “Long”.
2.     The support is crossed and broken downward, closing a daily session below what is appearing to be the new resistance. The best attitude to adopt here could be waiting for a technical correction, and after that, try to enter a “Short” position.
Reminder: Night trading on Sunday when markets open is not recommended since some unexpected movement can occur.
Have a profitable week!
Real-forex team.