Dollar Rallies on a Speculation of a Future Rate Cut by the ECB

The USD rose to the highest level in almost two months against the European currency ahead of a report tomorrow will show European producer prices slid a fifth month, giving the European Central Bank (ECB) more room to cut Interest Rates. As inflation is slowing and the Euro-Zone economy deteriorates, the Dollar is likely to increase further to as much as $1.27.

Economic News

USD – U.S. Senate Might Reject Obama Stimulus Plan; USD Could Suffer

After last week’s surprising bullishness against the EUR, the USD may be positioned to rise back up to price levels not seen since November. Ending last week at 1.2811 against the EUR, the greenback broke through a number of significant price barriers and continues to hold ground. However, the USD did not gain strength against every major currency. Against the British Pound the Dollar actually weakened to 1.4484 down from the 1.3660 seen at the start of the week.

With the week starting with troublesome news about Obama’s stimulus package potentially being killed in the U.S. Senate, the USD may stand to lose ground if action is not taken soon to help the economy recover. U.S. Republicans stand in opposition to this economic stimulus package as it appears to be in favor of excessive spending and a lack of focus on areas which Republicans feel need more attention, such as housing. But if this package is killed in the Senate, will there be quick enough action to come up with a new package which will appease both sides of the partisan divide in time to rescue the U.S. economy from entering a deeper recession?

This week’s upcoming news may indeed turn out negative for the U.S. economy, and the U.S. Dollar as a result. With Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate reports predicted to indicate a drop in employment across the United States, the U.S. currency will no doubt feel a pinch. Last week’s 11th-hour rally may in fact get reversed by mid-week unless the results from these reports turn out better than forecasted. Otherwise, traders should look for a weakening of the USD back to levels above 1.3000 against the EUR.

EUR – EUR Experiences Bad Week; Could this Week be Worse?

The EUR witnessed a significant drop at the end of last week versus the USD, Pound Sterling, and Yen, as investors lost more confidence in the 16-nation currency. As the economic downturn worsens, traders and investors alike are searching for a proper safe-haven to store their money. Dropping below 1.2900 against the USD and falling farther away from parity with the British Pound last Friday to hit a recent low of 0.8800, the EUR has seen better days.

With most fundamental data being released about the U.S. stimulus plans and British banking crisis, the EUR appears to be receiving little attention. With this week’s monetary policy meeting on the Euro-Zone interest rates looming, traders, while anticipating a decision to hold rates steady, perceive the EUR as a weak investment option compared with stronger safe-havens such as the U.S. Dollar. However, upcoming news about the U.S. Senate potentially refusing to pass President Obama’s stimulus package, the EUR may benefit from an unwinding of Dollar positions in exchange for an alternative investment.

This week will, however, be an important week for the Euro-Zone economies. The European Central Bank (ECB) will be meeting to discuss interest rates, as will the Bank of England (BoE). These two rate decisions being held simultaneously could potentially guarantee that the two currencies of these regions – the EUR and GBP – may witness high volatility in anticipation of these rate decisions. As interest rate decisions lately typically revolve around rate reductions, traders are likely to see early sell positions being taken on these currencies, which will drive their value lower in the coming days.

JPY – Japanese Yen Maintains Holding Pattern

The Japanese Yen continues to trade in a limited range of prices as its economy remains largely on track to continue its recession. As the Japanese economy weakened in recent months, the JPY was pushed higher as a result of Japan’s monetary and fiscal policies which intentionally held the Yen at an artificially low level while economic growth was bounding. As this growth unwinds and global interest rates are cut, the Japanese Yen reaps the benefits. But does this help Japan?

As is typically expected, there is not much fundamental data coming from Japan this week. Forex traders can expect the Yen to maintain its recent holding pattern as it awaits news from the European economies about this week’s upcoming interest rate policy meetings. If European rates continue falling, the Yen is likely to experience another period of appreciation. If rates are held steady, risk appetite may help push the island currency above the price level of 91.00 against the USD and 121.00 against the EUR.

Oil – Crude Oil Prices Expected to Dip

After a couple days of trading around the $41 price range, the price of Crude Oil appears to be preparing for a week of downward movement. Recent recessionary fears carry the potential to push the price of this commodity below $40 a barrel for the first time since March contracts began trading. A few Middle Eastern oil producers have downgraded their growth forecasts as a result of declining prices, as well as speculation of a continuation of these downward price trends.

News surrounding the price of Crude Oil doesn’t appear to be providing much information that hasn’t already been stated time and time again by many analysts. The global recession still holds full sway over commodity prices. This growth slump maintains downward pressure on the price of Crude Oil, and will continue to do so into the near future.

Technical News

The Slow Stochastic and the RSI on the daily chart are showing a continuation of the current bearish correction. There is also a very accurate bearish channel forming on the 4 hour chart. In addition, all indicators on the hourly chart are pointing down. Going short might be the right choice today.
Ever since bottoming at the 1.3750 level, the pair is galloping upward with full steam ahead and is currently traded around the 1.4414 level. The daily chart is providing exclusively bullish signals; implying that another bullish session is forthcoming and the 1 hour chart support that notion. Going long seems to be the right strategy today
The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart’s Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. All oscillators on the 4 hour chart do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies might be a good strategy today.
According to a daily chart this pair is still floating in a neutral territory with no distinct price direction. However a cross above the 70 line on the hourly chart’s Slow Stochastic is indicating that the next move is likely to be bearish. Traders should wait for the breach and swing.

The Wild Card

There is a very accurate bearish channel forming on the 4 hour chart, as the pair has consecutively dropped for the past three days. Currently, as the RSI on the daily chart is floating below the 50 line and the Slow Stochastic is pointing down, the pair might extend its bearish trend. This might be a great opportunity for forex forex traders to join a very popular trend.

Written by: