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02-12-2008, 17:00 GMT
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Today’s US Dollar Trading
• USD holds gains against most pairs
• USD/JPY drops to low 93’s
• US data dismal, volumes drop
• Look for follow-on selling of USD/JPY on weaker equities
• USD still inside larger ranges
Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales
• 12:30pm USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks
Falling equities, weaker US economic data and fear of larger than expected rate cuts by the ECB and the ECB later this week kept the pressure on the majors today as GBP, EURO, Swissy and CAD gave back recent gains. Traders note stops were part of today’s trade but thin conditions remained a contributing factor likely making the moves a bit bigger than would normally be the case. Analysts are now expecting a full 100 BP rate cut by the BOE on Thursday this week and traders sold GBP across the board today. GBP fell through support at the 1.4950 area finding stops for a low print at 1.4805 before profit-taking by the shorts lifted the rate back to the 1.4900 area. GBP likely pressured EURO lower as well today but the more than $5.00/BBL drop in Crude Oil put the EURO on the defensive today. Low prints at 1.2581 are well above key support around the 1.2480 area and traders note that thin conditions likely would have exaggerated ranges today but the EURO remained fairly well supported to end above the 1.2600 area. USD/JPY was pressured by weak equities today and more losses are expected. Low prints at 93.04 are above the October lows but stops were in size traders say around the 93.50 area; high prints at 95.59 went unchallenged during US trade today. USD/CHF rallied but failed to make a new high and remains below resistance around the 1.2380 area; low prints at 1.2018 during US trade is on support in my view. Traders note that a close under the 1.2020 area likely to inspire additional pressure on the rate. USD/CAD high prints at 1.2529 failed to find large bids and the larger range may suggest more two-way action on the way; low prints at 1.2303 are under key S/R at 1.2425 area. If the rate can close under the 1.2425 area the rate will likely suffer a pullback. In my view, the USD is range-bound between large S/R levels and the majors will continue to suffer two-way action near-term. Should equities drop again overnight I see the USD/JPY finally reaching a double-bottom around the 92.60 area; additional USD strength in other pairs likely to stall at existing end of ranges as the underlying fundamentals are just dismal for the USD.
Resistance 3: 1.5680
Resistance 2: 1.5620
Resistance 1: 1.5550
Latest New York: 1.4889
Support 1: 1.4700/10
Support 2: 1.4650
Support 3: 1.4550
Rate forced lower to start the week after consolidating gains last week. Good bids reported but supply seen from semi-official names. Stops in range helps to pressure but support has failed at 1.5050 area. Traders note solid two-way action with stops cleared across several levels. Sellers hold control above 1.5100 area so far; US news today also adds weight. OK to buy if flat on a dip. Profit-taking likely to result in a squeeze on the further strength. Technical trade overnight as traders decide near-term action with little to go on but the charts. BOE rate cut next meeting increasingly likely but that is likely completely factored in at this point. Traders note liquidity is only moderate and still on the lower side. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
4:30am GBP Construction PMI
7:01pm GBP Nationwide Consumer Confidence
Resistance 3: 1.3200
Resistance 2: 1.3120/30
Resistance 1: 1.3100
Latest New York: 1.2642
Support 1: 1.2580
Support 2: 1.2550
Support 3: 1.2480
Late break with spillover from GBP clears stops under the 1.2700 area and 1.2620/30 area. Possible reversal now in play but the rate needs to firm above the 1.2850 area in my view. Bids are building under the 1.2600 area as expected; sell-off likely to be bought hard now. OK to try the long side again on a dip. Traders note stops building above the market around the 1.2750 area in size likely to help create some two-way action but rate is well off those numbers to start. Support also from cross-spreaders as they unwind Yen. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market.
Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
5:00am EUR PPI m/m
Forex Analysis by: Forexpros.com – Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky
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