Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 8, 2013)


The U.S. dollar weakened against most of its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, as risk appetite continued to stay in the markets. EUR/USD climbed above the 1.3300 handle while GBP/USD reached 1.5500. There were no major reports released from the US then, which explains why the currency was unable to draw any support. For today, the jobless claims data could renew demand for the dollar as the report is slated to show 336K in first-time unemployment claimants for the previous week.


The euro was able to hold on to most of its recent gains, as the German industrial production report printed stronger than expected results. The actual figure showed an increase of 2.4%, higher than the estimate of a 0.3% uptick and the previous month’s 0.8% decline. German trade balance and the ECB monthly bulletin are due from the euro zone today.


Pound trading was much more volatile yesterday as the BOE’s inflation report rocked the pound pairs. At first, the pound underwent heavy selling when BOE Governor Carney said that the interest rate will be tied to the jobless rate, which they want to see to drop to 7% before tightening. In addition, they specified that inflation and financial stability will also have a say in monetary policy adjustments. However, the pound was able to recover when the central bank upgraded their growth forecasts for this year and next year. No reports are due from the UK today.


Switzerland printed weaker than expected data yet the franc was still able to outpace most of its counterparts. The SECO consumer climate figure came in at -9 instead of improving from -5 to -2 while the CPI report showed a 0.4% decline in price levels, worse than the estimated 0.1% downtick. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and it’s expected to stay at 5.2%.


The yen continued to pack its gains against its counterparts in yesterday’s trading, although traders took profits prior to today’s BOJ interest rate statement. No monetary policy changes are expected but the policymakers might highlight the recent improvements in the Japanese economy and suggest that they could reduce stimulus, which could be positive for the yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to recover against the Greenback during the US session, although the Loonie saw some weakness when Canada printed bleak figures. The Ivey PMI fell short of expectations and came in at 48.4 instead of climbing from 55.3 to 56.3. The building permits was also significantly weaker than expected at a 10.3% decline, worse than the estimate of a 2.5% drop. Australian jobs data was mixed, with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.7% and the employment change weaker than expected at -10.2K. Chinese trade balance is up for release within the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way.