After its strong rally towards the end of last week, GBP/USD consolidated tightly in a pennant formation during yesterday’s trading. This is most likely because traders are awaiting the release of top-tier British data within the week.
For today, the U.K. is set to release its CPI figures and possibly report a 2.8% annual increase in consumer price levels for February. The BOE is also set to release its Inflation Report in case the actual CPI data doesn’t stay within the government’s inflation target.
This report could provide a catalyst for a breakout in either direction. Recall that the BOE has committed to looser monetary policy if necessary even at the expense of stronger inflation and the risk of stagflation.
Higher than expected CPI could increase the odds of stagflation in the U.K. which might be more negative for the pound. However, weaker than expected CPI would also imply that the BOE has enough room to implement further easing, therefore the path of least resistance is down.
Stochastic is currently pointing downwards as it moved out of the overbought region. This suggests that selling pressure is still strong as pound bears might take the pair back to its recent lows around 1.4900. Shorting at a break below 1.5075 with a tight stop above 1.5100 and a target around 1.4875 would yield a 4:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way