Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -14/08/2012

Market review for 13.08.12: The Euro substantially grew on the results of the auctions for the Germany and Italy bonds.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The EUR / USD pair traded in arrange of $ 1.2265 -$ 1.2302 during the Asian session. The currency rate grew substantially during the European session after announcement of the results of the auctions of the Germany and Italy bonds. The EUR / USD pair strengthened to the highs of Friday and continued an upward move to the level of $1.2371. Italy today had sold treasury bills for the 8 billion euros which was a good result.

US Dollar: The dollar rose during the Asian session against most major currencies against the backdrop of worsening debt crisis in Europe. The demand increased this time for safe haven assets, which include the U.S. currency.

Japanese Yen: The important economical data of the Japanese economy which was released today showed the decline in exports and a reduction in consumer spending. That was the reason why Japan’s GDP in the second quarter rose less than had expected, only to 1.4% per annum, compared with a revised 5.5% in the previous period. The average estimate of analysts was as an increase by 2.3%. The USD / JPY pair grew up during the Asian session. On the next following session the yen rose against other traded currencies as investors preferred to purchase safe haven assets for their protection from the debt crisis in Europe, which negatively affects the growth of the global economy. The USD / JPY pair fell into the Y78.16 level.

Australian and New Zealand dollar: Amid falling on Asian stock exchanges demand for the risky assets as Australian and New Zealand dollars was limited. The New Zealand dollar was able to grow, however, on expectations of the release of the results of retail sales report, which expected to grow by 0.7%.

American trading session:

British Pound: The pound fell against its competitors after the Governor of the Bank of England Mr. Mervyn King said, that the debt crisis in the euro area continued to obstruct the British economic growth. Another factor which provided a negative for today’ currency dynamics was the fact that many market participants were waiting for the publication of data on inflation, which expects to show a slowdown.

U.S. Dollar: On this session the dollar was able to regain 40% of incurred losses despite the significant growth of the Euro currency during the European session. The greenback was still able to get support from buyers who prefer to purchase safe haven assets due the situation with debt crises in Euro.

Gold: The Gold prices grew on the rumors that the European Central Bank may intervene and support the euro. The cost of the August gold futures peaked at 1623.9 dollars per troy ounce on the COMEX today.

Oil: The Oil futures rose on fears that rising tensions in the Middle East will cause a failure in the supply of the Oil. The cost of the September WTI futures grew to $ 94.10 per barrel on the NYMEX.


Technical analysis for 14.08


The pair’s resistance 1.23907, support is 1.21813. The pair may rise to the Moving Average (100) at 1.25690. 
Resistance: 1.23907, 1.25690, 1.26897 
Support: 1.21813, 1.19332, 1.16742 
The pair is trying to break and stay above 1.56722, it may bring pair to rise to 1.58543. 
Resistance: 1.56722, 1.58543, 1.60322 
Support: 1.54842, 1.53482, 1.52063 
The pair is working out Head and Shoulders figure. The end of the figure maybe expected at 0.95670. MACD divergence supports pair’s downward corrections. 
Resistance: 0.97427, 0.98512, 0.99248 
Support: 0.96220, 0.95047, 0.93949 
If the pair stays below 78.345 the pair will decline to 77.439. 
Resistance: 78.345, 79.070, 79.707 
Support: 77.539, 76.463, 75.425 
The pair rolled back to 1.05332 and stays below this level. The pair may decline to the next support level 1.04407. 
Resistance: 1.06164, 1.07005, 1.07739 
Support: 1.05332, 1.04407, 1.03535