Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -24/05/2012

The Retail Sales in the UK were significantly worse than expected in April.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The EUR / USD pair traded in the narrow range of $ 1.2645-1.2685 during the Asian session. At the European trading session the major downtrend took over again and the couple visited its 2012 minimums of $1.2615 zone on the background of anticipation the negative outcome of the European countries leaders’ meeting. The was a negative sense on the market since the market participants did not expect that on the upcoming meetings will be announced the new measures for resolving the current situation with the crisis. Additional pressure on the euro also had a news agency Reuters’ message about recommendation for the Euro union to prepare individual emergency plans for the euro zone member countries in case that the Greece would leave the European union.

U.S. Dollar: The Index of dollar touched the highest level in 20 months thus updated the 2012 highs amid the growing demand for safe heaven assets due to the coming on June 17 Greece’s elections’, where the country would have made a very important decision whether it will remain in the euro union or not.

British Pound: The GBP / USD pair traded in the narrow range of $ 1.5741-1.5765 during the Asian session showing the same trading dynamics as EUR / USD pair. On the backdrop of published report on retail sales in the UK, the results of which in April were significantly worse than forecasts the currency dropped against its competitors. In details, the result was -0.3% versus 0.7 % in Year to Year basis. The pound fell against major currencies thus increased market participants’ expectations regarding the new round of quantitative easing program of the Bank of England. The GBP / USD pair fell in a deep intraday sell off to the level of $ 1.5670.

Japanese Yen: The yen rose against all 16 major currencies against the backdrop of closing some short positions by some disappointed short-term traders who were hoping for an unexpected easing of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan did not change its monetary policy as it was announced after a two-day meeting that ended today and left the size of the program of asset purchases unchanged at 70 trillion yen. The USD / JPY couple got hammered and fell to the region of Y79.52 during the Asian session. On the European session the downtrend was resumed and the pair recorded a new low of Y79.30.

Australian and New Zealand dollar: 
The Australian dollar fell to a minimum of the 2012 year in the AUD/USD pair (AUD 96.90) amid falling of the Asian stock markets.

American trading session:

Euro: The EUR / USD pair fell to its lowest level since July 2010, to the level of $1.2550 on fears that on the upcoming meetings of European Union leaders will not be announced the new measures for dealing with the current debt crisis in Euro zone.

Gold: The Gold prices fell at the beginning of the session yet were able to change their trading dynamics along with the rally occurred on the American stocks markets. The cost of the June gold futures after hitting the $ 1533.9 area grew to $1561 per troy ounce.

Oil: The Oil futures traded below $ 90 a barrel for the first time since November 2011on the background of resolving the situation with Oil supplies from Iran. The cost of the WTI July futures fell to $ 89.30 per barrel on the NYMEX today.


Technical analysis for 24/05


The pair has declined to 1.25690. 
Resistance: 1.26897, 1.28630, 1.30277 
Support: 1.25690, 1.23907, 1.21813 
The pair has declined to 1.56722. 
Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050 
Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53482 
The pair has broken 0.95074 and may return to this support. Higher is a strong resistance because of the trend channel at 0.96220 
Resistance: 0.96220, 0.97427, 0.98512 
Support: 0.95074, 0.93949, 0.93069 
The pair has broken MA (200) at 79.707 and now is returning to this level. 
Resistance: 79.707, 80.438, 81.399 
Support: 79.070, 78.345, 77.539 
The pair has declined to 0.97423. 
Resistance: 0.98436, 0.99207, 1.00067 
Support: 0.97423, 0.96579, 0.95611