Forex-Metal Weekly Analysis

Market review for 26 – 30.03, 2012

Euro: At the beginning of the week the Euro showed slightly growth against its competitors on the background of the intentions of European politicians to merge the two rescue funds in Europe in order to stop the further spread of the sovereign debt crisis. Also, the support for the euro came after the publication of the IFO report, which showed that the business climate index in Germany in March rose to 109.8 points vs. 109.6 points. The EUR / USD pair was able to recover to the area of $ 1.3244.On Tuesday, the euro retreated from daily highs against the dollar due to the negative situation at the stock markets. The economics statistics were not supportive this day as well; in details, the S & P / Case-Shiller Composite-20 index in January fell by 3.8 % (YoY). Also, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence in the U.S. economy in March dropped to 70.2 points, which was though higher than expectations but much lower from the revised 71.6 points for February. The EUR / USD pair strengthened in a region of $ 1.3371on Wednesday. The expectations of the positive result of the euro zone finance ministers’ meeting on March 30 in Copenhagen for discussing the prospects of the temporary association of the European Foundation for financial stability and a permanent mechanism for European stability supported the demand for Euro currency. On Thursday, the EUR / USD couple fell into the region of $ 1.3260, where it found strong support. The EUR / USD pair on the backdrop of increasing concerns, which were triggered by the growth yield of Italian and Spanish government bonds. The situation with the Italian and Spanish government bonds might be a reason for a new round of debt crisis in the Euro region. The euro was also pressured this day by the result of the report on index of Industrial confidence in the region, which unexpectedly fell in March to the -7.2 points and report on  index of consumer and business confidence in the euro-zone economy (ESI) in March, which decreased to 94.4 points vs. forecasted 94.5 points. Friday’s good news was the published information of increasing of the European Foundation for the financial stability, and therefore, by the end of the week the EUR / USD was trading near the $1.3330 area adding 0.5% against the U.S dollar.

US Dollar: The reasons for American currency’s growth on Monday were the anticipations of this week publications of positive macroeconomic statistics from the U.S. The dollar strengthened on speculations about the positive situation in the U.S. economy. However, at the American session, the dollar fell against most major traded currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Mr. Ben Bernanke said that the American economy still needs the accommodative monetary policy for reducing the unemployment rate in the U.S. On Tuesday, the dollar traded lower not far from monthly lows against the euro amid speculations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will proceed to the third round of quantitative easing, QE3. The greenback declined against almost all traded currencies. However, the U.S. dollar was supported by negative trading stock markets’ dynamics, which increased the demand for U.S. dollar, as for a currency with safe haven status. By the end of the week, due to the news regarding the increasing of the European Foundation for the financial stability, the greenback fell against all of its competitors.

British Pound: The trading dynamics of the British pound correlated with the euro’s dynamics at the beginning of this week, however, on Wednesday, after the final GDP were revised a small decline, the currency weakened against its competitors. Although, on Thursday, the GBP / USD pair was able to recover fromWednesday’s fall, the new piece of negative statistics had pressure on the pound this day. The market players were disappointed by the result of report, which recorded that the decline in the volume of net lending for individuals and approved applications for mortgage loans. Both reports were worse than expected for February. The GBP / USD pair dropped to $ 1.5863 area. On Friday, the GBP / USD pair tested key resistance level of 1.6000 due to the weakness of the greenback.


Japanese Yen: On Tuesday, the yen fell on rumors after the head of the Bank of Japan, Shirakawa said about the importance of the victory over deflation. He stated that for fighting the deflation the Japan will need a strong economy growth and monetary policy support. However, he stated, for the stimulation of the economy growth, not only the Central Bank’s liquidity injections might be required. The yen was strong on Thursday amid continuing global downturn in Asian stock markets. Also, the reasons for Japan’s currency growth against the dollar were speculations that Japanese companies will repatriate their profits abroad, until the end of the fiscal year on March 31.

Australian and New Zealand dollar: Both, Australian and New Zealand dollar were traded lower this week even had not strengthened against the dollar on Friday. These currencies fell against most major currencies amid decline of Asian stock indices. Also, the main reason for Australian dollar weakness is the slowdown in China economy, which will constrain the demand for the Australian export in a future.

Weekly technical analysis for 2 – 6.04


1.33427 is a key level for the pair. If the pair stays below this level the pair will decline to Fibonacci 38% and Moving Average (500) at 1.30820.

Resistance:  1.33427, 1.37441, 1.41130

Support: 1.28800, 1.25667, 1.20280


The pair has tested Moving Average (100) at 1.59962 and stays below this level. It may bring pair to test Neckline at 1.56607.

Resistance:  1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504

Support:  1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344


The pair has tested Moving Average (100) and rolling back to 0.88022.

Resistance:  0.93264, 0.96597, 0.99031

Support: 0.91074, 0.88022, 0.85633


The pair has reached Moving Average (100) at 82.245. Strong resistance maybe met at the trend line at 84.356.

Resistance:  83.330, 86.836, 90.909

Support:  80.244, 76.535, 73.126


The pair may decline to median line at 1.01873 in case 1.03847 is broken.

Resistance:  1.05810, 1.07806, 1.09604

Support:  1.03847, 1.01873, 1.00592