Analytical review of the EUR/USD pair for Monday April 5, 2010

Because of the holidays at the markets in the USA and Europe the trading for the euro-US dollar pair on Friday was under influence of the fundamental data from the US labor markets. Right from first minutes of session in Asia the pressure on the European currency strengthened, which brought to lowering of the maximums reached around 1.3587. The following sell-wave was renewed at North American session and only by the end of the day the pair recovered slightly amid fixation of the profit from short-term positions.

The session closed in favour of the US dollar which grew against the euro by 82 pips, the volatility equaled to 115 pips.

Fundamental review:
According to the US Labor Department the number of jobs created in non-agricultural sector in March this year grew by 162000, though it was below the experts’ forecasts who had expected the increase by 200000.

The increase of vacancies is directly connected with the population census due in 2010, held once in 10 years. In this respect the number of vacancies climbed by 48000. As these jobs will be reduced in the second half of the year, the economists advise not to lay much emphasis to the overal growth reading.

The total unemployment level in March remained flat 9.7% in line with the economists’ forecasts.

The average length of the working week in the USA increased to 34.0 hours from 33.8 in February. The experts forecasted the growth only to 33.9.

Technical analysis:
There is nothing in the fall of the pair on Friday, which could break the up-rising tendency, developing in late March this year. The low border of the rising price channel placed around 1.3470 without problems held a further falling of the pair, which brought to the European currency growth at the end of the session.

The support was gained by the euro from the level 1.3484. If the increase renews, the level of 1.3535 will be the first resistance area, having broke which the movement will continue to 1.3585.

If the trading instrument will be able to get through the level of 1.3484, the further falling will be restrained by the area 1.3435.

The direction of the mid-term mounting movement, formed by a 200- and 100- day moving average, was also not detected.

By the moment, the trading is conducted around a mid-line of the Bollinger Bands, which is situated around 1.3502 and acts as a support for the pair.

Though the MACD indicator is positioned in the sell zone, the further more serious movement of the pair downwards in the short-term perspective will be limited.

Recommendation for today:

Support levels: 1.3484, 1.3435, 1.3384.
Resistance levels: 1.3535, 1.3583, 1.3636.

Today, buy the pair at the closing by the hourly timeframe above the level of 1.3536 with a target- T/P 1.3614 and S/L 1.3495.
It is possible to sell below the level- 1.3476 with a target – T/P 1.3400 and S/L 1.3516.

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