Market review for 29.08 – 2.09, 2011After the diverse trading dynamics, by the end of the previous week the greenback reinstated its safe-haven status.
The dollar is finishing the current month with the maximal growth since May: in August, the dollar rose 1.2% against a basket of currencies and returned to the status of “safe-haven” currency. On Monday the greenback lost its positions against high-yielding currencies (Euro, Pound, Australian and New Zealand dollars), but strengthened against other currencies with the same “safe-haven” status (the Yen and the Franc). EUR/USD traded from its lows at $1.4463 up to its highs at $1.4550. The pair stepped back from the maximums after statistics that showed the slowdown in inflation in some parts of Germany.
The GBP/USD rose from $ 1.6341 and showed its session highs at $ 1.6412. Then, the pair was trading near the $1.6400 zone.
In the meantime the Swiss franc fell against the major currencies on the background of the strengthening of the major fund indices of the world markets. During the Asian session the Franc was trading for less than 0.8100. And the Australian dollar rose against the major currencies on the backdrop of the increasing demand for high-yielding currencies as well as in connection with the expectations of the data on building permits (due on Tuesday).
On Tuesday the EUR/USD pair showed its session highs at $1.4532, but couldn’t keep above this level and sharply fell to $1.4383. The euro decreased against the other major currencies as well on the background of reduced expectations of the further interest rates increase by the ECB.
The overall release of the European news was rather negative. Italian Retail sales dropped considerably, the Euro-zone Business climate, economic and industrial confidence indicators decreased below expectations.
Tuesday for the US dollar was a very ”good” day. In the view of European news the greenback seemed to many investors as the only alternative for preservation of their assets.
The Frank and the Yen, which also have safe-haven currency status, in the conditions of world instability, are under pressure now, since the governments of these countries continue to hold in control an increase in the national currencies after their significant rise in price.
After testing the $1.6418 level during that day, the GBP/USD pair fell to its lows of $1.6277 area. The pressure on the pound was a result of the published Great Britain Consumer confidence survey, which dropped below the previous month’s level and its expectations as well.
During the Asian session on Wednesday the Euro remained under pressure before the publication of the report on unemployment in the EC. The EUR/USD pair showed session highs at $1.4468, but returned at the $1.4435 zone. The pressure on the Euro increased after the published statistics, which recorded growth of unemployment in the EC in July to a level of 10.0% compared to the previous 9.9%. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to its minimums of $1.4416 during the European trading session. Concerns over slowing down of the economic growth in the Euro zone supported the demand for the safe assets, like theUS dollar.
Concerns over the spreading of the debt crisis in the EC and decreased demand for high-yield assets pressured the euro, which reached a two-week low against the US dollar at the $1.4262 area today. We should note, that the pressure on the Euro was increased even more after the message of the Greek Parliament Budget Committee saying that the debt situation in Greece was out of control regardless of the planned measures. Published weak statistics had additional negative influence on the euro: German GDP recorded a small growth only by 0.1% in comparison with +1.3% in the previous period and the EC PMI index report fell below the forecast of 49.7 and was 49.0.
The United States dollar increased against a basket of major currencies after the Institute for supply management (ISM manufacturing) provided data on the growing manufacturing activity index in August (factual level of 50.6 exceeded its predicted rate of 48.0). By the end of the trading week the demand for the save-haven assets increased and the US dollar strengthened.
Weekly technical analysis for 5 – 09. 09
The pair has declined to Fibonacci retracement 23% at 1.41130. If this level is broken the pair will decline to 1.38751.
Resistance: 1.41130, 1.44835, 1.47697
Support: 1.37441, 1.33427, 1.28800
The pair is under pressure of median line, Moving Average and Fibonacci 38.2%. 1.65784. Support will be met at 1.60852 and 1.59962.
Resistance: 1.64274, 1.68504, 1.72652
Support: 1.59962, 1.52523, 1.48532
The pair couldn’t break Fibonacci 23% and continues declining. The pair is aiming to 0.76882.
Resistance: 0.79957, 0.82723, 0.85633
Support: 0.76882, 0.73183, 0.69837
The pair has declined to 76.535. If this level is broken the pair will decline to 73.126.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117
The pair is under resistance 1.05810. If the stays above this level the pair will rise to 1.07806. If the pair declines below 1.05810 the pair will decline to 1.03847.
Resistance: 1.05810, 1.07806, 1.09604
Support: 1.03847, 1.01873, 1.00031