Forex Metal Weekly Newsletter

New wave of concerns over the possible debt crises of Italy and Ireland overwhelmed the market in the beginning of the previous week. Euro was under pressure on Monday, since concerns regarding possible spreading of the budget crises over Italy, worried investors, while decision about Greece was still not taken.   According to the released information, the ECB was looking for possible ways to increase the financial support volume, including the potential help for Italy. The EUR/USD pair dropped to $1.4130 minimums on that day. Eventually the EUR/USD dropped for 200 points to minimums of $1.4000. And the GBP/USD decreased to $1.5900 range.

Save-heaven currencies strengthened on Monday and the greenback grew against its major currencies.  Non-farm payroll data from the US was much weaker today than estimated, and the unemployment figure   increased to 9.2%.

The EUR/USD dropped to minimums of $1.3830 during the morning trading on Tuesday. The meeting of the EU Finance Ministers did not bring any concrete solutions to the debt-problems of Greece, Italy and Spain. It has been addressed that the selective default of Greece would be inevitable. The pound followed the euro drop, but was also influenced by the release of the negative UK fundamentals. UK Consumer price indices dropped below expectations, the Retail price indices decreased against the forecasts as well.  The GBP/USD pairdecreased to$1.5775 range.

According to the announced information on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan left the principal rate unchanged at the previous level of 0.10%.

By the end of the trading day the EUR/USD managed to rehabilitate and closed the day a little below the $1.400 level. Additional pressure was experienced by euro after the announcement that Moody’s reduced the credit rating of Ireland. The sterling grew as well and the GBP/USD managed to close above the $1.5900.

On Wednesday’s sessions we saw strengthening of the EURO against USD on the background of rising stock markets and revivalin demand for high-risk assets. Also, today’s investors were satisfied after the publication of unexpectedly strong macro-economic data from China. The EUR/USD traded in the range of $1.3960-$1.4030 during the Asian session. European session showed some volatility and the pair has reached its highs at $1.4110, but after retreated to its lows at $1.4070.

Dollar dropped sharply after Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that the FRS was ready to take additional incentives, including the launch of another round of government bonds redemption, if the outlook for the economy shows a risk of a new recession.

The YEN confirmed stabilization against the major currencies on the backdrop of speculation about possible intervention by Japan for supporting national exporters. USD/JPY pair has tested sessions’ lows of Y79.20/15, then rebounded toY79.35.

The Australiandollar rose as a result of the increasing Asianstock markets after the release ofpositive macroeconomic data from China and continued growing against USD.

The pressure on the euro on Thursday was caused by the decision of the international rating agency Fitch Ratings to downgrade the credit rating of Greece for CCC from B +. Fitch was also reviewing the possibility of further credit rating lowering. During the Asian session the EUR/USD pair establishedits maximum at $1.4285 and then declined. During the European session after the publication of the Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index for June, whose rate has been increased by 0.1% to 1.6%, the euro was forced to recover from its lows at $1.4155 to its highs at $1.4196.

The New-Zealand dollar was supported by the released statistics which showed the GDP growth above expectations (+0.8% quarterly against the forecasted +0.5%). As a result, the speculations that the Reserve Bank of New-Zealand would increase the interest rate this year, reinforced.

The EUR/USD pair closed the week at the $1.4150 maximums, and the GBP/USD reached the  $1.6150 range after the reinforced possibility that the international rating agenciesMoody’s  and Standard&Poor’s would downgrade U.S. credit rating.



The pair couldn’t stay above 1.44835 and declining to the channel line at 1.41130. If this level is broken the pair will decline to Moving Averages (100 and 200) at 1.37441.

Resistance:  1.44835, 1.47697, 1.50676

Support: 1.41130, 1.37441, 1.33427


The pair is trading around support 1.59962. If the pairs stays below this level, the pair will decline to 1.57233.

Resistance:  1.64274, 1.68504, 1.72652

Support:  1.59962, 1.52523, 1.48532


The pair has broken 0.82723 and aiming to 0.79957.

Resistance:  0.82723, 0.85633, 0.88022

Support:  0.79957, 0.76882, 0.73183


The pair has broken 80.244 and aiming to 76.535.

Resistance:  80.244, 83.330, 86.836

Support:  76.535, 73.126, 69,117


The pair is trading below 1.07806, this may bring pair to test channel line at 1.03847.

Resistance:  1.07806, 1.09604, 1.11831

Support:  1.05810, 1.03847, 1.01873