ForexPros Daily Analysis January 28, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: US GDP (QoQ)P
Traders anticipate the publication of the the Gross Domestic Product measure tomorrow (January 29). The GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator for the economy’s health.
The Annualized (quarterly change x4) percent changes in GDP shows the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
Consumption is by far the largest component in the GDP of the US and has the most affect on it.
The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a reading of 4.50% versus a past lower reading of 2.20%.
The Euro broke 1.4014, and dropped as expected, stopping only 8 pips before our suggested target 1.3928. But the sharp n swift bounce that brought us back above 1.40 may threaten this break, so will it hold? Looking at the hourly chart, we can see that the Euro, and before breaking 1.4014, has stopped at the falling trend line from 1.4554 for a third time, which makes this line one that deserves attention. The downtrend from 1.4577 will be dominant as long as we are below this line, which is currently at 1.4065, that’s why it is resistance of the day. While the support is at 1.3969, and breaking either of these levels will set the direction for the next hours. Breaking resistance 1.4065 will initiate a correction for the whole drop from 1.4577, with ideal targets at 1.4181 & 1.4257. On the other hand, breaking support at 1.3969 means that we will leave the 1.39 areas after a swift visit and head toward the 1.38s where 1.3888 & the important 1.3824 awaits.
• 1.4014: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
• 1.3888: Jun 24th & 25th low.
• 1.3857: Dec 19th 2008 important low.
• 1.4065: the falling trend line from 1.4554 on the hourly chart.
• 1.4181: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
• 1.4257: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.4577.
As it is expected, the “trend line that deserves attention” has successfully managed to present support once again, giving the Dollar-Yen a chance to hold above support 89.12, breaking resistance 89.69, and successfully reaching the first suggested target 90.30. This fine bounce may manage to test the most important resistance for now 90.71, which is provided by the falling trend line from 93.75. If the Dollar is meant to achieve more gains from this bounce, it is preferred that we do not break support at 89.98. And between 90.71 & 89.98, we will await a break of either of them to set the direction for the short term. If wettest the falling trend line and break the resistance 90.71, the price will already be in a correction for the whole drop from 93.75, with ideal targets at 91.44 & 91.98. In case of a break of the support 89.98, we will target going back to the same trend line that provided yesterdays support, which is currently at 89.05, and if broken 88.30.
• 89.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
• 89.05: the support of the falling trend line from 90.58.
• 88.30: Dec 14th low
• 90.71 the falling trend line from 93.75, the most important resistance currently.
• 91.44: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 93.75.
• 91.98: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 93.75.
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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