Daily Forex Analysis by Finexo.com 14/01/2010


Over night, the AUD returned to its early momentum and rallied upwards as the Australian’s unemployment data was released, adding three times more jobs than forecasted. The unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 5.5% from November the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday morning GMT.
As one of the world’s still expanding economy, the Australians are generating more jobs than expected and as China is demanding more from its neighbors in means of raw materials; new investments and more jobs are continuing. With this, the ozzie is continuing to be strong against all the major currencies.

At 06:52 GMT, The Rate Range
AUD/USD – 115 pips (0.9215-0.9230); EUR/AUD – 131 pips (1.5623-1.5754)
GBP/USD – 168 pips (1.7496-1.7664); AUD/JPY – 129 pips (84.11-85.40)

At 12:45pm GMT, The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets for the first time this year and their non-decision on rates will be published. Expectations that the 1.00% rate will continue today and for the next several months. ‘Perhaps’ this will change later on but unlikely at the moment. Last week, the Bank of England retained its rates at 0.50%.
The meeting tied in to President Trichet’s ECB Press Conference will also discuss the implications of European weaknesses in the weaker Euro-Zones such as Greece. The ECB published a working paper in December that suggested it was unlikely for a member state to leave or be forced out of the monetary union. This could be more important than the actual Rate announcement.

Yesterday’s Lows & High
EUR/USD – 123 pips (1.4456-1.4579); EUR/GBP – 73 pips (0.8892-0.8965)
EUR/JPY – 170 pips (131.51-133.21); EUR/NZD – 23 pips (1.9595-1.9618)


At 13:30 GMT, the U.S. Unemployment Claims are expected at 438k. This is even more important in today’s session due to last Fridays un-forecasted 85k decline in non-farm payroll raised the concern that the economy is not on target for a recovery and that improvement in the labor market may have slowed if not reversed!
The lack of new job creation will have other repercussions to the US recovery as it will encourage the US to boost job growth even further which would be included in a new stimulus plan; linked to the increased US budget deficit.

Yesterday’s Lows & High
USD/JPY – 65 pips (90.90-91.55); GBP/USD – 170 pips (1.6135-1.6305)
USD/CAD – 122 pips (1.0288-1.0410); GBP/CHF – 82pips (1.0136-1.0217)

Written by Finexo.com