Daily Forex Analysis by Finexo.com 8/12/2009


Monday saw the Dollar rise to levels not seen in more than five weeks against a basket of currencies, extending Friday’s rally that was sparked by a much better than expected jobs report. The trading patterns indicate that there is much short covering of the Dollar, a theory floating through the market claims, as investors scramble to adjust their holdings after the good sign from the employment data. Investors are now banking that the US will begin increasing its almost non-existent interest rates, helping to increase the Dollar’s value.

The ICE Futures Dollar Index was trading as high as 76.183, a five week high. The index tracks the USD’s performance against six of the major currencies in the Forex marketplace.

At 10:45PM GMT, the US Dollar was trading up .87% against the British Pound to 1.6329, up .61% versus the Australian Dollar to .9089, up .92% to the New Zealand Dollar to .7095 and up .58% against the Swiss Franc to 1.0223. The Dollar did decline on Monday, down .12% to the Canadian Dollar to 1.0565 and .75% versus the Japanese Yen to 89.92.


The Euro surprised investors on Monday by not showing any reaction to comments made by European Central Bank President, Jean-Claude Trichet, indicating that the Eurozone economy is continually showing signs of recovery. German manufacturing orders also surprised investors as the indicator took an unexpected negative turn, however the Euro seemed unaffected – trading mixed to higher overall on the day.

At 11:00PM GMT, the Euro was trading down .5% to the US Dollar to 1.4786, down 1.09% against the Japanese Yen to 133.08, up .41% to the British Pound Sterling to .905, down .66% versus the Canadian Dollar to 1.5615, up .14% to the Australian Dollar to 1.6264 and up .12% to the Swiss Franc to 1.5117.

Chart: USD/CHF

The USD/CHF has seen an interesting reversal off last week’s lows, a reversal that confirmed momentum and strongly rejected the recent attempt below parity. We point out the USD/CHF as opposed to the EUR/USD because for once, the EUR/CHF seems to be on the move a bit here to the upside after trying at 1.5000, meaning that the USD/CHF rally has been more powerful than the EUR/USD sell-off. If the CHF weakness has been aided by the Swiss National Bank, then it could prove very fleeting, but rate spreads certainly suggest there could be more fuel for the rally fire here.


Written by Finexo.com