Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 25, 2009
NZD traders await tomorrow’s announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, on the quarterly Inflation Expectations Report (Nov 26).
The report predicts the percentage change in prices of goods and services over the next 2 years (The future inflation expected by business managers).
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the NZD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the NZD.
For technical analysis on the NZD/USD and other currency pairs see Forexpros.
The Euro broke the resistance 1.4951 and touched 1.50 this morning, but it stopped before 1.5018. This will be the “resistance of the day” and breaking it will give way to reach 1.5082 for the first time this year, and may be later a jump to 1.5144. But, exhaustion is starting to appear on the RSI indicator on many timeframes, including the hourly chart, which could weaken the Euro, and lead it to drop without breaking 1.5018.In this case, we will head towards short –term support at 1.4981, and if broken, the targets will be Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole rise from 1.4800 at 1.4925 first, and may be then 1.4878, which is Fibonacci 61.8% and the most important support for the short-term at the moment.
• 1.4981: short-term support.
• 1.4925: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last upward leg from 1.4800.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last upward leg from 1.4800, the most important support for the short-term.
• 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
• 1.5144: previous resistance from 2008.
Dollar-Yen broke the support 88.56, and came close to the suggested target 88.13 (the low until this moment is 88.19). That is why this support will be our “support of the day”, and we believe it is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10. Breaking 88.13 will be a signal that the price is heading to a test of Jan 12th bottom, and this year’s & the last 15 years’ low 87.10, and may be later to levels that have not been seen on the screens since 1995, like 86.40. Short-term resistance is 88.46, and breaking it would give this pair the needed strength to go back to 89, and specifically to 89.07 first, and may be 89.60 later. The outlook for the medium-term is still negative, and approaching 88.13 only added to the negativity.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.
• 86.40: support area from 1995.
• 88.46: short-term resistance.
• 89.07: intraday top.
• 89.60: Nov 7th low.
Forex Trading Analysis by Forexpros – Written by Munther Marji.
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