Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 01, 2009
The U.S Department of Labor will release The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report tomorrow (Dec 2)
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients.
This release, 2 days before the government-released employment data , is a good predictive to the government’s non-farm payrolls data. The change in this indicator can be very volatile.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict tomorrow’s measure to stand at -148.00k, a substantial change from last month’s -203.00k.
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The Euro broke the support 1.5043 but it only reached 1.4970, without testing the important support area 1.4955-1.4924. And now, it is going back up, closing on almost the same levels that we were at yesterday’s morning. Te price tried to break 1.4970 twice, yesterday, then in the Asian session, without succeeding in doing that. This indicate that this support is important, but we will adopt 1.4985 as support of the day. Where the resistance is found at the falling trendline from last week’s top 1.5143, and that line is currently at 1.5050. Breaking any of them would deliver the next move direction. Breaking 1.5050 will lead to a test of this year’s high 1.5143 once again, and may be 1.5200 after that. Breaking the support 1.4985 would target Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4924, and this is a crucial support, if broken we will target 1.4867.
• 1.4985: intraday support.
• 1.4924: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4867: important intraday support from last week.
• 1.5050: the falling trend line from 1.5143 (this year’’s high and last week’s top).
• 1.5144: resistance area from 2008.
Dollar-Yen broke through both the resistance & support without creating any major moves, except for nearing the first target 87.50 after breaking the resistance 87.00. the current rise is invited to show strength at Fibonacci 61.8% at 87.50, and if it succeeds in doing so, then a test of the bottom of the supposed wedge formation at 88.33 is to be expected, and if this important resistance is also broken, the next target will be the top of that formation which is currently at 88.84. today’s support is yesterday’s resistance 87.00, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the downtrend after some rising bounces. This trend would target the rising trendline from last week’s bottom on the hourly chart, which is currently at 86.44, first, then yesterday’s low 85.84. The trend is down, and the Yen strength is still expected, but we should be aware of the possibility of interventions by the Japanese government that would left this pair many steps up!
• 87.00: short-term support.
• 86.44: the rising trendline from Thursday’s low.
• 85.84: yesterday’s low.
• 87.50: Fibonacci 61.8% short-term (for the move from 89.17 to 84.81).
• 88.33: the bottom of the supposed wedge formation.
• 88.84: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
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