USDJPY Analysis – Oct 18, 2008

USDJPY is in consolidation to down trend. Further rally to 104.00 zone to reach the next cycle top on daily chart is still in favor, and the next cycle top is nearing. As long as the trend line resistance holds, we’d expect down trend to resume, and deeper decline is still possible to retest 95.77 (Mar 17 low) after consolidation. Only rise above the trend line resistance will indicate that the fall from 110.66 has completed.

For long term analysis, USDJPY formed a cycle top at 110.66 on weekly chart. Pullback towards 95.77 (Mar 17 low) to reach next cycle bottom is now in favor. In a bigger picture, the pair formed a long term cycle bottom at 95.77 on monthly chart and is in long term bullish movement. Further rise towards 120.00 is still possible after testing 95.77 level.

usdjpy daily chart