AUDUSD Channel Retracement (Mar 07, 2017)

AUDUSD recently broke below its ascending channel support around the .7650 minor psychological mark and dipped to .7550. Price seems to be showing signs of pulling back and applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% level is close to the broken channel.

The 100 SMA also coincides with the 61.8% Fib to add to its strength as a potential ceiling. If this holds, another move towards the swing low could take place. The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA for now to show that the path of least resistance is to the upside, but the gap is narrowing so a downward crossover may be imminent.

Stochastic is also heading up to indicate that buyers are in control of price action at the moment. Once the oscillator hits the overbought area and turns lower, selling pressure could return.

The RBA is set to announce its monetary policy decision today and is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.50%. In their previous statement, the central bank sounded upbeat about growth and inflation, leading market watchers to believe that no further rate cuts are in the cards. This time around, the RBA might acknowledge that Aussie strength has dampened export demand and overall trade activity.

The US dollar continues to stay supported by expectations of a March rate hike but additional volatility is still expected around the NFP release. Analysts are expecting to see 185K in hiring gains, slower than the earlier 227K increase. Weaker than expected data could cast doubts about a hike and send the dollar lower.

On the other hand, upbeat results could spur more dollar gains as this would keep the Fed on track towards hiking rates thrice this year. Fed speeches last week were mostly in line with this bias, with Fed head Yellen herself acknowledging that waiting too long to hike could do more harm than good.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way