USDJPY recently broke above its descending channel visible on the 1-hour time frame, indicating that it’s done with its downtrend. Price climbed up to a high of 115.00 before pulling back and applying the Fib tool on its latest swing high and low shows that the 61.8% retracement level lines up with the broken channel resistance.
The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA on this time frame so the path of least resistance is to the upside. Price also seems to have bounced off the 200 SMA dynamic support, which is also near the channel resistance, and might be on its way back to the swing high.
Stochastic is pulling up from the oversold territory, which means that bullish pressure is building up once more. Stronger buying momentum could take USDJPY past the swing high onto the next ceiling around 115.50 and beyond.
US banks are closed for the holiday today so liquidity could be low and range-bound conditions could be in play. Over the weekend, Japan printed a weaker than expected trade surplus of 0.16T JPY compared to the estimated 0.28T JPY figure and the earlier 0.33T JPY surplus.
Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI is up for release tomorrow and a drop from 52.7 to 52.1 to reflect a slower expansion in the industry. A weaker than expected read could reflect a sharper slowdown, which could be bearish for the Japanese yen.
As for the US, the flash manufacturing PMI is due and a rise from 55.6 to 55.8 is eyed, which would be indicative of a faster pace of growth. Traders are also on the lookout for Trump’s tax reform plan as a truly “phenomenal” announcement could lead to more gains for US equities and the dollar.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way