AUDUSD Triangle Correction (Nov 23, 2016)

AUDUSD recently broke below the descending triangle support visible on its 4-hour time frame. Price found support near the .7300 major psychological level then started to pull up. Applying the Fib tool on the latest swing high and low shows the potential correction levels.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is closest to the broken triangle support around the .7600 handle while the 38.2% Fib is near a broken support at .7500. The 100 SMA crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside, and these moving averages coincide with the 61.8% Fib to add to its strength as a ceiling.

Stochastic is already indicating overbought conditions, which means that buyers are already getting exhausted. Once the oscillator turns down from the overbought region, sellers could take control and push AUDUSD back to the .7300 lows or lower.

Earlier today, Australia reported a 4.9% slump in construction work done for the third quarter. This was much worse than the estimated 1.5% slide, indicating weaker demand for metals and other raw materials. 

Meanwhile, medium-tier reports from the US economy have been stronger than expected. Last week, Fed Chairperson Yellen confirmed the strong likelihood of a December rate hike since they’d need to adjust monetary policy to give room for increased fiscal stimulus from the incoming Trump administration.

Up ahead, FOMC minutes are up for release but this might not have much of an impact since this meeting took place weeks ago. Profit-taking ahead of the Thanksgiving long weekend is expected so AUDUSD might pull up higher before resuming its drop. US durable goods orders are also lined up today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way