The USD/JPY pair fell hard during the course of the day on Wednesday, slicing back below the 1.5 handle. However, we did get a bit of a bounce near the 123.50 level to show bits of support. With this, the market should eventually go higher, as the buyers have returned. We believe that the longer-term trend is most certainly to the upside but we also recognize that it is the middle the summer time right now. That of course can keep the market somewhat skittish, and with that we are buyers but we need to see supportive candles in order to do so.
Looking at shorter-term charts might be the way to go, as we have to build up enough momentum eventually to break out to the upside. The Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates sometime this year, while the Bank of Japan continues to show signs of significant liquidity. We believe that the market will continue to favor the US dollar of the Japanese yen, but we are at a large, round, psychologically significant resistance barrier.
With this being the case, we feel it’s only a matter time for this market takes off to the upside, probably targeting 130 by the time the year is over. However, we do not have the volume right now to break through these barriers so it makes sense that we continue to bounce back and forth. With that, we are buyers and not sellers, but we also recognize that a lot of patience will be needed in order to take advantage of what should be the breakout for the next leg higher. In fact, we believe as long as we stay above the uptrend line below, we should have plenty of reason to continue to go long time and time again. With that, we are buying dips, pullbacks with signs of support, and of course impulsive moves higher. We believe this will be an uptrend for the longer term going forward as more money comes into the market over the next couple of weeks.