EURUSD has been forming lower highs and higher lows, creating a triangle pattern on its 1-hour forex time frame. At the moment, price is testing the top of the consolidation pattern and may be due for a move lower. Stochastic is heading down anyway, indicating a pickup in selling pressure.
This could mean a move towards the triangle support at the 1.1350 minor psychological level, as traders await the results of the debt negotiations between the new Greek government and its creditors. In the latest meetings, Greece refused to accept the arrangement to extend its current bailout since this would mean more austerity measures for the country.
If Greece puts its funding at risk though, it could be in for a euro zone exit and more economic woes. As for the euro zone, a Greek debt default would mean financial weakness for other member nations that are exposed to those bonds. This could lead to overall euro weakness, with a potential downside break from the chart pattern.
In that case, EURUSD could be in for around 300 pips in losses, which is the same height as the chart pattern. This could lead to a test of parity, which might hold as a key support zone and trigger a sharp correction for the pair.
Similarly, an upside break could lead to a 300-pip rally, although this seems to be a less likely scenario. The FOMC minutes to be released in today’s New York session could be a major catalyst for a breakout in either direction, as their monetary policy bias might determine the longer-term trend for the US dollar.
Bear in mind that volatility could be higher in the latter half of this week, as most traders might be off on a Chinese New Year holiday. The lower liquidity could mean larger price reactions to key events and potentially hundred-pip moves among dollar pairs if any significant announcements are made.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way