Here are the Top 5 Forex Developments for the trading week between 11/24/14 through 11/28/14:
Number One: UK GDP
The UK economy continued to expand at a strong pace. The reported annualized growth rate of 3.0% has matched economists’ expectations as well as the growth rate of the second-quarter. The reason why the British Pound was unable to rally substantially move higher was due to the driving force behind the strong reading was s surge in government spending of 1.1% which offset the 0.4% contraction in exports.
Number Two: US Durable Goods
Durable goods orders excluding transportation disappointed forex traders with a contraction of 0.4% in October. The disappointment allowed for the US Dollar to weaken, but general bullishness prevailed and prevented any further decline in the US currency. The excessive bullish momentum is not warranted as the US economy is much weaker than many have predicted.
Number Three: Eurozone CPI
Forex traders are trying to gauge when and if the European Central Bank will abandon the Euro and initiate a stimulus package similar to the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve. Stable inflation data in the form of the Eurozone CPI may keep the ECB out of the game for a bit longer. Inflation remains very low, but today’s data was enough to push the Euro higher.
Number Four: Canadian Retail Sales
Retail sales for September came in stronger than expected at 0.8%, but excluding autos retail sales printed a 0.0% figure and missed expectations for an increase of 0.3%. Retail sales over the past month now show a monthly contraction of 0.1% and the Canadian Dollar felt the impact with a sharp drop against major currencies.
Number Five: US Consumer Confidence
The holiday season is around the corner and consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of US economic activity. The few weeks leading towards Christmas are usually very busy which makes the plunge in consumer confidence for November an extremely worrisome development. It is too early to tell, but should weak confidence translate into week spending the US Dollar could be in trouble.