The EUR/USD pair fell during most of the session on Friday, but as you can see found enough support in the region of the 1.37 level in order to bounce and form a hammer. This hammer suggests that the market is trying to go higher, but we do have to keep in mind that the 1.38 level is resistance. In fact, there is a little bit of a zone in that general vicinity, they could keep the market down, and because of that we are a bit hesitant to start buying.
This can often cause a lot of problems, simply because of the fact that the markets show signs of support, but there’s just a bit of a “squishy zone” above, and therefore it’s hard to tell when you are truly broken out. The easiest way for us is to simply wait until we get a fresh new high above the highs that we saw in later October. If we can break that high, then we feel that the market will head to the 1.40 level without too many issues.
The biggest problem of course is the fact that we are at the end of the year, and therefore a lot of traders simply will not be at their desks. They were worried about holidays, and not necessarily the value the Euro. All things being equal though, we have to look at both economies and understand that they both have major issues
The Federal Reserve has already stated that they cannot taper off of quantitative easing unless the employment picture looks better. Because of that, jobs numbers out of the United States have become vitally important, and therefore will have to be watched. On the other side of the Atlantic, you have the European Union that seems to be worried about deflation, something that could absolutely killer currency if they start easing. Because of this, this market will continue to be volatile, as it has been over the last couple of years, but right now it appears that the “floor” in this market is at the 1.36 level, and that if we can get above the 1.3850 area, this market should go higher. Between now and then, spec a lot of noise.