Forex Major Currencies Outlook (August 15, 2013)


The dollar weakened yet again in yesterday’s trading as the PPI reports turned out to be a disappointment while Bullard’s speech cautioned against easing too soon. This throws water at the Fed’s Septaper plans, considering how Bullard is a voting member of the FOMC. For today, CPI figures are up for release and it might be disappointing as well. Also due today are the initial jobless claims and a couple of manufacturing indices, which are likely to show improvements. However, weaker than expected data could continue to undermine the dollar’s performance for the rest of the week.


The euro zone is officially out of the recession, as seen from the GDP figures which printed growth of 0.3% versus the estimated 0.2%. However, this wasn’t good enough for the euro as the currency didn’t rally at all after the release. Instead, it even lost ground as some traders thought that the figures were not good enough. For today, banks in the euro zone are on a holiday so there might not be enough liquidity in the euro session.

The UK printed better than expected jobs data, as claimants dropped by nearly 30K again. This was enough to keep the jobless rate steady at 7.8%. For today, retail sales are up for release and a higher than expected growth of 0.7% is eyed compared to the previous 0.2% uptick. Another strong figure could lift the pound higher, possibly above 1.5600 against the dollar.


The franc lost ground to the dollar yet again even though Switzerland printed an improvement in its ZEW expectations report. This was probably because Swiss PPI came in weaker than expected as it printed a flat reading. No other reports are due from Switzerland for the rest of the day.


The yen continued showing signs of weakness as it lost appeal among traders. After all, Abe is going to impose a tax hike, and this could take its toll on consumer spending and businesses. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen might take its cue from Japanese equities.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD)

The comdolls were able to take advantage of dollar weakness in yesterday’s trading, as AUD/USD retested .9200 and NZD/USD landed back above .8000. There were no major reports, except for the New Zealand retail sales and the improvement in Australia’s Westpac consumer confidence figure. No other reports are due from the comdolls for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way.