ForexPros Daily Analysis May 20, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: German Ifo Business Climate Index
European traders anticipate the publication of the German Ifo Business Climate Index. The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR. Analysts predict a future reading of 102.00.
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.2223, and successfully reached both suggested targets 1.2327 & 1.2412 with a perfect triumph. This climb is probably the first part of a massive rising movie, which will be correcting the latest series of collapses, which started at 1.3690 & smashed the Euro for more than 1500 pips in a few weeks. Today, will be a very important day for determining the value of this possibility. If the price goes up from here, this will indicate a correction for that massive move down from 1.3690, which will be able to take us to the 1.27-1.31 area within the next 2 weeks. It is only natural for most traders to anticipate this correction, but overexcitement could lead to premature, and wrongfully timed trades, leading to negative outcomes. As for the short term, the resistance is at 1.2364, and breaking it would indicate a continuation of this spiky climb, targeting 1.2519 & 1.2604. The support is also near, it is at 1.2320, and breaking it would take us back where we traded recently: the important 1.2252 first, then 1.2159.
• 1.2320: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from yesterday’s low.
• 1.2252: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from yesterday’s low.
• 1.2159: important intraday support.
• 1.2364: important intraday resistance.
• 1.2519: May 6th low
• 1.2604: may 12th low.
Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 91.79, and dropped by almost 100 pips, getting very close to our suggested target 90.75, without reaching it (The lowest price for the past 24 hours is 90.84). Stopping at this bottom is actually stopping at Fibonacci 50% level for the whole rise from 87.99 to 93.62. Therefore, we are before a very important level, which will be our “support of the day”. If broken, the drop will continue, and will target a very important level at 90.14, and if this one is also broken, we will target 89.61. On the other hand, resistance is at 91.50, and breaking it would improve the negative technical outlook for the short term, probably slightly. This break will give the price enough strength to rise towards 92.28, and may be later the single most important resistance at this stage 93.49. This resistance, which got attacked more than once without giving way, is an important level not only for the short term, but for the medium term as well. If broken, a lot of things will change, but until then, the Yen is the one wearing the pants in this relationship.
• 90.81: Fibonacci 50% support for the rise from 87.99.
• 90.14: Fibonacci 61.8% support for the rise from 87.99.
• 89.61: Mar 9th low.
• 91.50: important intraday level.
• 92.28: Fibonacci 50% for the short term.
• 93.49: previous hourly resistance.
Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forex Pros.
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