Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -09/08/2012

Market review for 08.08.12: The pound grew sharply when the Bank of England expressed less concerns of about the British economy outlook.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The decline in industrial production in Germany, which fell for the month of June in monthly term by 0.9% versus forecasted 0.8% and compared with an increase for the previous month in 1.6% once again showed the negative impact on the Germany’s, the Europe ‘s largest economy. The Euro currency dropped against its competitors. Also, the Euro was negatively influenced by the statement of experts from international agency Standard & Poor’s who on August 7 lowered forecasts of the Greek economy rating from “stable” to “negative.” Currently, the Greek economy rating has a CCC rating. The EUR / USD pair fell to the lows of $ 1.2326 during the European session.

U.S. Dollar: On the publication of the results of the quarterly report of inflation in Britain by the Bank of England, the dollar got support and rose sharply. In connection with this, most of all currencies which trades in pair with the U.S. dollar updated their daily lows and continued to decline.

British Pound: The GBP / USD pair was trading between $ 1.5602 -$ 1.5616 before the report of inflation in Britain has been published. The pair, after testing the $1.5571 level, its daily low has strengthened up. The less negative tone while announcing the inflation report, where was noted that the official data of results of the growth of the gross domestic product exaggerated the underlying weakness of the British economy provided significant support for the currency. The pound grew sharply against all its competitors after the governor of the Bank of England Governor Mr. Mervyn King expressed less concern than it was expected by the markets and signaled that the reduction in interest rates did not significantly change the British economy outlook.

American trading session:

Euro: The Euro was able to recover back more than half of its losses. The positive news of the day was the report on labor productivity in U.S. which in the second quarter rose more than expected. Also, the trading dynamics of the currency were positively affected by the published data on changes in the level of non-farm productivity of the U.S. economy, which showed increase in the second quarter of the 2012 year.

Canadian dollar: The Canadian dollar strengthened significantly during the day against the U.S. dollar, updating the level of $0.9940.

Gold: The cost of the August futures for gold on COMEX recovered from the level of 1603 dollars per ounce to1612 dollars per ounce. Support for this growth provided the weak data on industrial production in Germany, which were far below expectations as well as the negative information that the rating agency Standard & Poor’s revised its outlook on Greece, stating that the further assistance from international lenders might be needed.

Oil: The increase in oil prices was caused by fears of market participants that the tensions in the Middle East would cause a failure in supply of Oil. The cost of the September WTI futures rose to $ 94.7 per barrel on the NYMEX , however fell to $92.90 when the department of Energy said today that the total demand for Oil products fell by 1.1% to 18.9 million barrels a day in the week ended August 3.


Technical analysis for 9.08


The pair’s resistance 1.23907, support is 1.21813. The pair may rise to the Moving Average (100) at 1.25690. 
Resistance: 1.23907, 1.25690, 1.26897 
Support: 1.21813, 1.19332, 1.16742 
The pair’s resistance is 1.56722. Support is 1.54842. 
Resistance: 1.56722, 1.58543, 1.60322 
Support: 1.54842, 1.53482, 1.52063 
The pair is working out Head and Shoulders figure. The end of the figure maybe expected at 0.95670. MACD divergence supports pair’s downward corrections. 
Resistance: 0.97427, 0.98512, 0.99248 
Support: 0.96220, 0.95047, 0.93949 
If the pair stays below 78.345 the pair will decline to 77.439. 
Resistance: 78.345, 79.070, 79.707 
Support: 77.539, 76.463, 75.425 
The pair is aiming to 1.06164. 
Resistance: 1.06164, 1.07005, 1.07739 
Support: 1.05332, 1.04407, 1.03535