Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -03/05/2012

The Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate in March reached a new record of 10.9 %.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The EUR/USD couple traded in a range of $1.3209-$1.3241 at Asian trading session. 
The demand for the euro was limited ahead of the publication of PMI data today. Also, the market participants were expected that the outcome of tomorrow’s meeting of the European Central Bank in Barcelona would be the keeping the benchmark interest rate at a record low 1 % level. The published reports on indices of business and industrial sectors’ activity in Germany, France, and the Euro zone as a whole, which were worse than expected, pressured the Euro currency during the European trading session. The Euro fell steeply down against almost all major currencies. The EUR / USD pair declined to $ 1.3132 area.

US Dollar: The U.S. dollar was in demand today after the yesterday’s publication of ISM manufacturing data, which was better than expected. The results of report weakened the strong expectations for possible Q3 program of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

British Pound: The GBP/USD pair copied the trading dynamics of the EUR / USD pair. It traded in a narrow range of $1.6218-$1.6235 at the Asian session than fell to lows of $1.6159 when the European session started.

Japanese Yen: The yen fell against almost all its competitors after the senior vice president of Moody’s rating agency, Mr. Tom Byrne warned about the possible consequences of increasing taxes in Japan, which were proposed by the Minister of Japan, Mr. Ozawa. The USD / JPY couple strengthened during the Asian session to Y80.60 area yet fell later to the lows of the day at Y80.05 area.

American trading session:

Euro: On the background of publication of the reports on the European production which showed a reduction and rising unemployment rate in Germany, the EUR / USD pair continued its decline falling to the $ 1.3132 area. In details, the Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate in March in monthly terms increased by 0.1 percentage points and reached a new record – 10.9 %.

US Dollar: Also the greenback got hammered at the American trading session by the weak results on US economy’s performance. The ADP Employment Change report showed that the number of jobs in private companies in the USA in April rose by only 119K compared with 201K in March. The result was worse than analysts’ forecasts who predicted this value at 170K. However, the Factory Orders in March decreased by 1.5% versus forecasted reduction of 1.6% thus provided some support for the currency.

Gold: The June’s futures of Gold decreased today to $ 1645.97 per troy ounce on the backdrop of published statistics on an index of business activity in the industry sectors of the euro area in April, as well as on report on unemployment rate in the Euro region in March.

Oil: The Oil prices fell after the U.S. Department of Energy reported that amount of Crude Oil contains in US inventories rose to 2.840 million barrels, its highest level in more than 21 years. The cost of June’s futures of WTI type of Oil fell to $ 104.90 per barrel on the NYMEX today.


Technical analysis for 03/05


If the pair stays below 1.31674 the pair will decline to 1.30277. 
Resistance: 1.31674, 1.33143, 1.34882 
Support: 1.30277, 1.28630, 1.26897 
The pair has nearly touched 1.63316 and rolling back to 1.62050. If 1.62050 is broken the pair will decline to 1.60322. 
Resistance: 1.63316, 1.64636, 1.65706 
Support: 1.62050, 1.60322, 1.58543 
The pair has drawn five lines inside the triangle. The pair couldn’t break the lower triangle line and is aiming to upper line at 0.91819. 
Resistance: 0.92026, 0.93069, 0.93949 
Support: 0.91079, 0.89635, 0.88418 
The pair is trading between two Moving Averages (100 and 200) 80.438 and 79.707. 
Resistance: 80.438, 81.399, 82.219 
Support: 79.707, 79.070, 77.539 
The pair is trading in the range between Moving Averages (100 and 500) 1.04407 and 1.02558. If the pair breaks 1.02558 the pair will decline to 1.01744. 
Resistance: 1.03535, 1.04407, 1.05332 
Support: 1.02558, 1.01744, 1,00907