Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -07/03/2012

Possible problems regarding exchange of Greece bonds put pressure on the markets today.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The EUR / USD pair fell down to the lows of $ 1.3112 by the end of the European trading session. The publishing a report on GDP of the Euro Zone in the fourth quarter recorded the expected value of -0.3% (YoY). The reason to that result was the debt crisis in the region, which still delays the growth of economy. An additional pressure on the Euro currency was also provided by the message of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) which stated that the spontaneous, uncontrolled Greece default will cost around 1 trillion euro to Euro Zone and will possibly force Italy and Spain ask for financial help from international lenders. 
US Dollar: After the last president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Mr. Richard Fisher inform the markets that he opposes additional bonds’ purchases; the U.S. dollar got another push for strengthening against most major currencies. Mr. Richard Fisher said that additional bonds’ purchases may reduce the status of the U.S. Dollar as the reserve currency in the world. 
Japanese Yen: Concerns about possible problems regarding exchange of Greece bonds and the situation in the Euro Zone put pressure on the stock markets today, which triggered the demand for the Japanese yen, as traditionally safe asset. The USD/JPY couple fell to the Y80.77during the European trading session.
Australian Dollar: The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. The Australian dollar weakened against 15 of the 16 major currencies after the publication of this news.

American trading session:

Oil: An Oil prices fell to a two-week low after the publication of information that the European Union offered to resume negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, thereby reduced the risk of the possible conflict in the Middle East. Also, the increased investors’ concerns about the success of the program of the Greece debt restructuring put pressure on commodity prices today. April WTI futures fell to 104.48 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold: The prices Gold also continued to slide down, dropping today by almost 2%, after recent sell off by 5% against the background of increased concerns about the possible problems regarding exchange of Greece bonds. The closed price of the March Gold futures recorded $ 1673.77 per troy ounce, today.


Technical analysis for 7/03


The pair has declined to below Moving Average (100) and may break support 1.31674 and decline to 1.30277. 
Resistance: 1.31674, 1.33143, 1.34882 
Support: 1.30277, 1.28630, 1.26897 
The pair has drawn Head and Shoulders. MACD also has formed divergence that supports pair to start workout of the figure. The first aim is at 1.56722 if the pair declines below 1.58543. The second aim is at 1.54842 if 1.56722 is broken. 
Resistance: 1.58543, 1.60322, 1.62050 
Support: 1.56722, 1.54842, 1.53482 
The pair has found support at 0.91079 and trying to rise to 0.92026. 
Resistance: 0.92026, 0.93069, 0.93949 
Support: 0.91079, 0.89635, 0.88418 
The pair has reached Moving Average (500) at 81.399 and may roll back to 79.707. 
Resistance: 81.399, 82.219, 83.065 
Support: 80.438, 79.707, 79.070 
The pair has drawn Triple Top and broke Neckline support 1.06164. MACD divergence supports pair to start workout the figure. If 1.05332 is broken the pair will decline first to 1.04407. 
Resistance: 1.06164, 1.07005, 1.07739 
Support: 1.05332, 1.04407, 1.03535