Forex-Metal Daily Analysis -01/03/2012

Technical analysis for 1/03


The pair has fallen to support level at 1.33143 and may return to 1.34882. 
Resistance: 1.34882, 1.35984, 1.37486 
Support: 1.33143, 1.31674, 1.30277 
The pair is trying to break Moving Average (500) 1.59093 and will try to raise to 1.60322. 
Resistance: 1.60322, 1.62050, 1.63316 
Support: 1.58543, 1.56722, 1.54842 
The pair returned to Moving Average (200) 0.90517 and may continue declining first to 0.89635. 
Resistance: 0.91079, 0.92026, 0.93069 
Support: 0.89635, 0.88418, 0.87214 
The pair has reached Moving Average (500) at 81.399 and may roll back to 79.707. 
Resistance: 81.399, 82.219, 83.065 
Support: 80.438, 79.707, 79.070 
The pair has broken 1.07739 and aiming to 1.08413. 
Resistance: 1.08413, 1.09112, 1.09782 
Support: 1.07739, 1.07005, 1.06164


Market review for 29.02.12: The LTRO program began. The EUR and commodities suffered a big sell-off today. Market review for 29.02.12: The LTRO program began. The EUR and commodities suffered a big sell-off today.


Asian and European trading sessions:

Euro: The Euro currency had a spectacular both trading sessions today. At the beginning of the Asian trading session, the currency slightly grew on the background of the following publication of second three -year LTRO program for providing unlimited liquidity to European banks by the ECB for a term of 3 years with a annual rate of 1% . The EUR / USD pair climbed again to its highest level since the beginning of this year, $1.3485 area. After the results of LTRO program, which supported the market’s expectations, the EUR / USD couple rapidly dropped. The market participants were taking profits after the recent growth of the currency on the background of starting LTRO program. According to the published information, the ECB provided to the European banks the amount of 529,531 billion euro. The EUR / USD couple fell into the region of $ 1.3426.

U.S. Dollar: On anticipation of today’s speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in Congress, the dollar weakened against almost all major currencies. It was expected that Bernanke, in spite of recently published good news of the U.S. economic, will confirm the continuation of the easy monetary policy that has declared on January 25.

Australian Dollar: The Australian currency rose against almost all major currencies after the publication of the Retail Sales report, which showed growth to the four-month highs. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Retail Sales, as it was expected, increased in January in comparison with December by 0.3% to 20.95 billion Australian dollars. These were precisely matched the forecasts of economic specialists.

New Zealand dollar: The New Zealand dollar also grew after the publication of New Zealand National Bank, which recorded in its conducted survey that the business confidence increased up to five-month high in February.

American trading session:

Euro: The Euro currency suffered a very sharp sell-off to the lows of $1.3320 and did not even pull back. The market participants were not only taking profits on long positions on this currency but also entering in short positions on the background of speech of Mr. Bernanke who did not support the expectations that the Fed will take new measures to strengthen the economy.

Gold: The Gold had a nasty spill as well, dropping from 1783 down to 1686, closing at the lows for the day fell. It dropped after a speech by Fed chief Mr. B. Bernanke, who did not confirm the probability of QE3 in the short term.

Oil: After the report which showed that U.S. oil inventories rose to their highest level of more than five months the Oil continued its three-day decline. The cost of April futures on WTI fell to 104.83 dollars per barrel.