Market review for 16 – 20.01, 2012
Euro: The European currency made another great attempt to recover against the U.S. dollar and rotate its well-established down trend. After reaching a new low of $1.2627 against the US dollar on Monday due to lowering credit ratings of some Europeans countries by Standard & Poor rating agency on Friday, January 13 the Euro currency started its big snap back. On that day, the good news of placement of the government bonds of France were supportedfor currency positive trading dynamics. On Tuesday, the Euro rose against the background of report on China‘s GDP which was better than expected. In details, the report showed the increase to 8.9% versus forecasted 8.7% in fourth quarter of 2011 year. The support for the Euro currency was also provided by the results of the auction on government bonds of Belgium. Belgium attracted 2.96 billion euro with planned target of 3.0 billion euro. The currency continued growing as well as after the successful result of auction of bonds of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The published by the German institute ZEW report, whose index value showed improvement in Germany and the EU as a whole had also positive influence for the trading dynamics of the Euro. The currency recorded its daily high of $ 1.2807 mark. Against the background of making attempts to force the Greek private lenders such as banks, insurance companies and hedge funds to agree to cancel 50% of the country’s debt in their holding the euro was rising during the Wednesday’s trading sessions. On Thursday, the results of the auctions of Germany’s government bonds, which raised 3.44 billion euro for 2 years as well as of Portugal’s bonds of 2.5 billion euro with targeted 2-2.5 billion euro, were also supportive for the Euro currency. TheEuro continued to strengthen against major currencies amidst the positive results of auctions of Spain and France governments bonds. All in all, the Euro has recovered by almost 2% against the U.S. dollar and added 230 points by the end of this week.
US Dollar: The dollar fell against major currencies against the background of positive dynamics in the Asian, European and U.S. stock markets. The investors were also buying the risky assets. The declined demand for relatively safe assets started to be appeared after the published information by IMF which informed of increasing its lending resources to $ 500 billion in order to protect the global economy. The Americandollar continued to decline against its major competitors amid signs of U.S. economic recovery and rising stock prices of Asian, European and American companies.
British Pound: The GBP/USD pair traded mostly in uptrend direction and has almost the same dynamics with the Euro currency .Friday even showed this couple increase by 1.5% or 230 points, after the positive data on retail sales.
Australian dollar: The Australian dollar rocketed sharply today at the beginning of the Asian session against a background of stronger than expected data on China‘s GDP which grew in fourth quarter of 2011 year. The currency traded at its highs against of almost all its competitors. Even though, the employment report in Australia showed job losses of 29 300 in December 2011, the currency continued its uptrend which was primarily supported by the demand for risky assets.
Weekly technical analysis for 23 – 27. 01
The pair has broken Moving Average (500) and trying to reach support at 1.25667. If the pair stays above this level the pair will return to MA (500) and Fibonacci level 38% at 1.30624. If the pair declines below 1.25667 the pair will decline to the next Fibonacci level 50% at 1.21216.
Resistance: 1.28800, 1.33427, 1.37441
Support: 1.25667, 1.20280, 1.17063
The pair may try to decline to Fibonacci 23% at 1.53340.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344
The pair has reached Moving Average (100) and may stay below this level 0.93264.
Resistance: 0.96597, 0.99031, 1.04060
Support: 0.93264, 0.91074, 0.88022
The pair has declined to support level at 76.535.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117
The pair is trying to break upper level of the triangle and aiming to 1.05810.
Resistance: 1.05810, 1.07806, 1.09604
Support: 1.03847, 1.01873, 1.00031