Market review for 09 -13.01, 2012
Euro: This for Euro currency week began with optimism. During the trading sessions on Monday the Euro was raising against its major competitors against the background of attention to the crucial meeting of leaders of Germany and France. The EUR / USD pair strengthened to $1.27835 level at the beginning of the European trading session amid the positive expectations of this meeting. On Tuesday, the Euro continued to recover against the major currencies for the second day against the background of a positive perception on the results of the meeting of the heads of European countries. The purpose of this meeting was to take an action to resolve the debt crisis of EU. The EUR / USD pair rose above $ 1.2800 and recorded its daily high at $1.2815 area. Due to growing concerns of possible distribution of debt crisis in Europe, the euro fell against the dollar as well as against the others major currencies during the Wednesday’s trading sessions. Market participants still feared that the current crisis will cause a slowdown in the economy of the region. The EUR / USD pair decreased below $ 1.2700 and recorded its low of $1.2662. During the Thursday’s Asian trading session the EUR/USD couple traded in narrow range between $1.2700 and $1.2732 levels .Market participants did not want to initiate any actions at the threshold of announce of the EU Central Bank rate, which was left unchanged later . The result of the auction of Spain government bonds, which attracted almost double amount than planned, 9.98 billion euro against planned of4-5 billion euro, supported the Euro currency this day and the EUR/USD pair grew up, showing the maximum at the $ 1.2778 area. At the rest of Thursday the Euro remained traded at its highs against the US dollar after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that he saw signs of stabilization in the economy of the EU. On Friday, the European currency is completely cut off its previous day’s achievements and dropped to a 17-month low against the US dollar. The result of strong sales of the euro was lowering of credit ratings of several European countries.
US Dollar: The US dollar ended up this week with a slight increase against the euro and the pound 0.5% and 0.9% relatively. The positions of the U.S. currency against the yen remained almost unchanged. On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar fell against the background of positive dynamics in the European and Asian stock indexes and demand for risky assets. The pressure on the dollar this day at the American trading session was also provided by positive momentum in U.S. stock markets. The US dollar, traded mostly lower against its competitors on Thursday, because of the leading decline in demand for relatively safe assets. The currency slid down after the report on U.S. retail sales in December, which rose less than expected, by only 0.1% versus forecasted 0.3 %. Also, the increased Initial Jobless Claims, which grew to 399K against forecasted 375K, pressured the American currency.
British Pound:The pound remained under pressure amid speculation that this year the Bank of England will expand its program of bonds redemption and today’s announcement of the interest rate of England. The Bank of England would more room to stimulate the economy because of declined inflation in the UK. The market participants think that there are chances for continuing the program of quantitative easing after February. The GBP / USD pair fell below $ 1.5300 and recorded its weekly low at the level of $1.5232.
Swiss Franc: The news of the resignation of the head of the Swiss National Bank Mr. Philipp Hildebrand which released on Monday was supportive for trading dynamics of Swiss Franc. This resignation is related to the recent scandal of illegal operations with the use of insider information. The Swiss currency became stronger against its competitors after the head of the Swiss central bank had reported this issue.
Weekly technical analysis for 16 – 12.01
The pair has broken Moving Average (500) and trying to reach support at 1.25667. If the pair stays above this level the pair will return to MA (500) and Fibonacci level 38% at 1.30624. If the pair declines below 1.25667 the pair will decline to the next Fibonacci level 50% at 1.21216.
Resistance: 1.28800, 1.33427, 1.37441
Support: 1.25667, 1.20280, 1.17063
The pair has declined to Fibonacci 23% at 1.53340.
Resistance: 1.59962, 1.64274, 1.68504
Support: 1.52523, 1.48532, 1.43344
The pair will try to reach Moving Average (200) at 1.01369. At the same level is Fibonacci 61%.
Resistance: 0.96597, 0.99031, 1.04060
Support: 0.93264, 0.91074, 0.88022
The pair is rolling back to 76.535.
Resistance: 80.244, 83.330, 86.836
Support: 76.535, 73.126, 69,117
The pair has risen above 1.01873. If the pair stays above this level the pair will rise to 1.03847. If the pair stays below 1.01873 the pair will decline to 1.00031.
Resistance: 1.03847, 1.05810, 1.07806
Support: 1.01873, 1.00031, 0.97889