Daily Forex Analysis by Finexo.com 09/02/2010

Past Sessions

• CAD Housing Starts – out at 186K versus expected 180K, prior 176K
• GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y out at -0.7% versus prior 4.2%
• GBP RICS House Price Balance out at 32% versus expected 28%, prior 30%


• GBP – Trade Balance (930GMT)
• AUD Home Loans m/m (Wednesday 0030GMT)
• USD Trade Balance (Wednesday 1330GMT)
• CAD Trade Balance (Wednesday 1330GMT)

Market Comments

Last week the British Pound hit a nine month low falling victim to the strengthening US dollar, particularly on Friday following the release of a better than expected Unemployment rate. After plummeting 1.9% against the greenback, this week’s events will play an important role in determining if the Pound can regain its sovereign strength.

Britain started the day off early releasing two interesting reports at one minute past midnight. At 00:01 GMT, the government announced the BRC Retail Sales Monitor which supplies as early indication to Britain’s retail (often referred to as the “mini-retail sales”). Unfortunately, retail sales fell 0.7% in January from the same month last year, while total annual sales grew 1.2%- the weakest January performance in 15 years. Simultaneously, the government released the RICS House Price Balance- this figure shows the balance between areas with rising prices and areas with dropping once. After reaching a peak of 35% in November, the balance fell back to 30% last December; while this week’s release was predicted to show another dip to 28%, against expectations RICS monthly survey found a net balance of 32% of chartered surveyors reported a rise rather than a fall in house prices.

So far this morning, the GBP has managed to recover slightly against the USD-opening at 1.55894, the Pound managed to increase as much as 0.34% against the greenback, going as high as 1.56426. Later today (930GMT), Britain will release it Trade Balance, predicted to show a smaller deficit of 6.6B versus last month’s report which showed a trade deficit of 6.8Billion. If the trade deficit comes in better than expected, the Sterling could very well continue this daily upward trend.

On the other side of the British Channel, following speculation that European officials meeting this week will agree to assist Greece in tackling its deficit, the Euro managed to regain some of last week’s losses- rallying from an eight month low versus the dollar and a near one year low versus the Yen.

This morning, the early Asian markets witnesses a 0.629% increase in the EUR/USD – with the pair increasing from its eight month low opening price of 1.36547 to hitting a high of 1.47406. The speculator news also fueled the Euro to appreciate against the Yen- the pair increased almost 1%, reaching as high as 123.114.

Across the Atlantic, Canada reported (yesterday) a 5.8% rise in their housing starts for January, beating consumer expectations of 180K- resulting in a seasonally adjusted rate of 186,300 units from an upwardly revised 176,100 units in December. This report which usually has a significant impact on the Loonie, caused the USD/CAD to fall 0.38% reaching a daily low of 1.06555- however, this positive economic news did not have a lasting effect on the USD/CAD, as the pair closed yesterday at 1.07600.

However, the Loonie’s battle against its neighbor’s powerful currency is not over- tomorrow both Canada and the US will simultaneously announce their Trade Balance. While Canada is expected to report a near perfect balance of -0.1B, the US is predicting a deficit of -35.7B, versus last month’s -36.4B. This double hitter event usually causes the USD/CAD pair to dramatically fluctuate- potentially giving an opportunity for the CAD to recovery against the US dollar.

Written by Finexo.com