EUR/USD analysis (July 13, 2011)

The Euro has been accelerating its decline below 1,40 to reach a new fresh low near 1,38.
It is interesting to see that yesterday’s bounce coincides with the 200 moving average.

EUR/USD : daily chart

Given the oversold studies, we might see a pullback towards 1,41/1,42 for the formation of a lower top before resuming the downtrend. A break above yesterday’s high at 1,4060 would confirm this scenario.

We will wait for a good opportunity the sell to pair into rally. It is tempting to trade the bounce but always very risky.