Daily Analysis – 19/05/2011

ForexPros Daily Analysis May 19, 2011

Intraday congestion shows the indecision in the EUR/USD

The dollar’s buying momentum continues to struggle at 75.70. Recent highs at 75.73 and 75.70 have proved to be where the bulls are stepping off the train. With that in mind let’s consider what that means for the EUR/USD as prices tackle the resistance between 1.4276 and 1.4288. This 12 pip area in front of the 1.4300 major psychological level is proving to be a formidable ceiling.
The daily chart of the EUR/USD while not quire confirming a downtrend, is trading below the 34EMA Wave with red GRaB candles.*

*GRaB candles are a way that I have changed traditional candlesticks to show sentiment and momentum as it relates back to price action and my 34EMA Wave. When prices are trading above the 34 period EMA high the candles plot green (light green for an up close and dark green for a down close), when prices trade within the 34 period EMA high and 34 period EMA low the candles plot light/dark blue, and for price action below the 34 period EMA low, prices plot light/dark red. The MT4 version for indicator is free for download at Search for “GRaB 2.0”.

The rollover through the 34EMA Wave is – for now – more indicative of distribution than a downtrend although with consistent resistance at the 34 period EMA low and a push for lower lows and lower highs, the trend could shift to a mark down as the 34EMA Wave takes on a “four to six o’clock” angle.
There is a certain “wait and see” attitude that the EUR/USD is reflecting and I think much of it has to do with whether the 76.00 level on the U.S. Dollar Index will prove to be resistance or whether buyers can carry the index above the major psychological level. Much of this will have to do with the Fed’s stance on a future interest rate hike (slim to none especially with growing whispers of QE3) and whether the concern for inflation in  Europe can overcome the concern for higher borrowing rates as the ECB tries to dig out of it sovereign debt mess (think Greece, Portugal, and Spain).

Forex Trading analysis written by Raghee Horner for Forexpros.

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