Daily Analysis – 24/12/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Dec 24, 2009

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.4298, but it stopped half way between the support & the target, as the high in the past 24 hours was 1.4365, a few pips below short term resistance 1.4371. This morning the price came back close to this resistance that we consider as resistance of the day, and breaking it would confirm the upward direction that started by breaking the descending channel. Short-term support is at 1.4238 and breaking it is not expected after the radical change in the technical outlook that happened after breaking 1.4298. But if it happens it would target 1.4153 and then 1.4030. A break of today’s most important resistance 1.4371 would cause a jump to 1.4502, and later to Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term 1.4596.   

• 1.4238: Fibonacci 38.2% for the micro-term.
• 1.4153: Jul 2nd high.
• 1.4030: the bottom of the descending channel on the hourly chart, and Aug 18th low.

• 1.4371: Monday’s high, and the resistance that the price tried to break twice in the past 24 hours.
• 1.4502: Dec 15th low.
• 1.4596: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium term (for the whole move from 1.5139 to 1.4260).


Though it tried more than once, the Dollar-Yen could not break 91.78, and that is why there is almost no change to the technical outlook we spoke about yesterday. The price is invited to show strength against the resistance 91.78 (currently trading pips below it), and if broken, a test of the area that caught our attention 92.31-92.52 will be only a matter of time. And if this area is broken, the Dollar will take off, towards March 19th low 93.53. On the other hand, if the price fails to create a sustained break of 91.78, a drop towards 91.06 where the moving average SMA100 & the  retest level for the broken channel are waiting, will follow. And if this level is broken, the price will drop towards the important 90.03, and if broken we are to see 89.55.

• 91.06: the moving average SMA100 on the hourly chart, and the retest level for the broken channel.
• 90.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 88.91 to 91.85.
• 89.55: previous important intraday low.

• 91.78: Jul 8th low.
• 92.31-92.52: resistance area created between Oct 27th & Sep 21st tops.
• 93.53: Mar 19h low.

Forex trading by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for Forex software and trading tools.

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