The previous trading week continued the weakening of the US dollar. During the morning trading on Monday the EUR/USD demonstrated movements in the range of $1.4520-$1.4600. Euro strengthened against the greenback due to expectations for the strong Euro-zone fundamentals to be published this week. Possibility of the ECB interest rate increase grew. Maximum of the EUR/USD pair was reached at the $1.4628 level.
Japanese yen started the week with a decrease as a result of the speculations that Bank of Japan might increase its credit program, aimed to support the rehabilitation of the national industry from the earth quakes. It was expected that the Bank of Japan would leave the principal rate unchanged. Minimum of the USD/JPY was reached at the Y81.88 mark.
American trading session demonstrated a change in the trading dynamics of the greenback on Monday. US dollar strengthened against its major competitors due to the drop of the American stock markets. Demand for the risky assets dropped. Decrease of the US new home sales data supported the greenback as a save-heaven currency.
On Tuesday morning the US dollar continued to strengthen. But during the European trading session the greenback dropped in anticipation of the FRS meeting, planned for Wednesday. It was expected that the interest rate would be left unchanged as well as the current monetary policy. The EUR/USD pair grew and reached the $1,4600 level against the background of the weakening greenback. $1.4652 maximum was reached during the European trading session. The GBP/USD pair grew to the $1,6500 mark following the euro growth. European trading session showed maximums of $1.6533 level.
As the demand for the risky assets dropped on the same day, the USD/CHF hit new historical minimum at the level of 0,8750.
During the American trading session the greenback continued to drop. Negative US fundamentals pressured the national currency. The S&P Case-Shiller composite-20 index decreased for 3.3% compared to the previous year. Market participants were waiting for the results of the head of the FRS, Ben Bernanke, press-conference after the FOMC meeting.
Greenback reached its 16-month minimum against the euro on Wednesday. It was expected that the FRS would discuss further measures of economy stimulation.
The Australian dollar renewed its historical maximum against the US dollar due to the strong fundamentals, that were released on Wednesday. The Consumer prices index for the first quarter turned out to be higher than expectations and above its previous volume: 3.3% against the forecasted 3.0%. Expectations for the interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia reinforced.
The GBP/USD rate also grew and the pair reached maximums of $1,6520. Increased UK Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter supported the pound growth. As a result, the sterling hit the $1.6580 range.
S&P Credit agency reduced the credit rating of Japan to negative level on Wednesday. As a result, the national currency dropped. The USD/JPY pair grew to the Y82.30 mark.
Greenback decreased against the euro after the FOMC meeting. Principal rate was left at the previous minimal level of 0-0.25% and the quantitative easing program would be completed in June, as it has been planned. As a result, the EUR/USD grew to the level of $1,4790 and the GBP/USD rate reached the $1,6620 maximum.
Greenback continued to demonstrate decrease against its major competitors on Thursday. The FRS decision to maintain the extra-low principal rates’ politics pressured the US dollar. Nevertheless, the temporary correction followed the excessive drop of the dollar, and the greenback managed to rehabilitate and won back its previously lost positions. Due to the US dollar weakening during the Asian trading session the EUR/USD grew and reached the $1,4881 maximums. The sterling followed the euro, and the GBP/USD increased to $1,6745 level.
The USD/JPY pair reached the Y81,40 range. Bank of Japan left the principal rate unchanged on Thursday at the previous level of 0,00%-0,10%, which was expected.
Negative US fundamentals were released during the American trading session on the same day. Unemployment growth and US GDP, which turned out to be below forecasts, did not have a strong influence on the greenback dynamics.
By the end of the week the EUR/USD traded above the $1,48 mark, and the GBP/USD reached levels above the $1,67 maximum.
Weekly technical analysis for 2 – 6.05
The pair has met resistance at 1.47697. The indicators show that corrections may start. First aim is at 1.47342, next 1.46222.
Resistance: 1.47697, 1.50676, 1.54340
Support: 1.44835, 1.41130, 1.37441
The pair is aiming to test 1.68504. Support is at 1.64274.
Resistance: 1.68504, 1.72652, 1.78085
Support: 1.64274, 1.59962, 1.52523
The pair has reached next support level at 0.85633 and may roll back to 1.88022.
Resistance: 0.88022, 0.91074, 0.93264
Support: 0.85633, 0.82723, 0.79957
The pair has returned below 83.330. It may bring pair to decline to 80.244.
Resistance: 83.330, 86.836, 90.909
Support: 80.244, 76.535, 73.126
The pair has risen to resistance level at 1.09604. The indicators are in overbought zone. The corrections are possible. First level for the carrion is 1.08070. Strong support is at 1.01873.
Resistance: 1.09604, 1.11831, 1.14307
Support: 1.07806, 1.05810, 1.03847