USD/CHF Daily Fundamental Analysis for April 27, 2011

The Swiss economy lacks fundamentals today, which means that the pair’s movement will be affected by US data. As of 12:30 GMT, the US will release durable goods orders for March with expectations showing improvement to 1.5% from the prior 0.9% drop, while the reading excluding transportation is predicted to record 2.2% from the prior 0.6% drop. However, the main highlight of the day is going to be on the Fed’s meeting due at 16:30 GMT which is expected to witness no change in monetary policy as policy makers will keep interest rate at its low level between 0.0% and 0.25%, according to median estimates.

In the case of improvement in US data while holding borrowing cost unchanged, the dollar may gain slight support, where the main outlook for the pair remains to the downside amid the dollar’s weakness and speculations the SNB may raise interest rate after the ECB’s April’s rate hike.

On Tuesday, the pair showed decline despite the Swiss data showing a narrowing trade surplus in March after the 4.8% drop in exports and 1.3% advance in imports.

The franc’s appreciation affected offshore sales negatively which raise the possibility of seeing an intervention by the SNB to depreciate its currency that was the best performing currency last year and delaying raising interest rate.

Data from the US released on Tuesday showed that S&P/CS home price for February rose to -0.18 from the revised -0.25 while consumer confidence rise to 65.4 in April from 63.8, giving some support to the dollar.

Written by