Market review for 18 – 22. 04, 2011
The previous trading week started with the decrease of the euro. The EUR/USD pair demonstrated minimums at the level of $1.4350. The euro was pressured as a result of the speculations that the Greece would not be able to avoid default. Elections in Finland also had a negative influence on the euro. One of the leading political parties “True Finns” was against the EC plan to render financial support to the European countries. The Parliament of Finland would probably block the decision to offer financial support to Portugal. New EUR/USD minimums were set at the $1.4265 mark. The GBP/USD pair dropped below the $1.6300 mark. Trading day minimums were set at the $1.6240 range. Greenback was in demand on Monday, as concerns over the European debt crises reinforced. The released decision of the credit agency Standard & Poor’s to reduce the credit rating of the US from stable to negative rendered temporary support to the greenback competitors. As a result, the EUR/USD managed to grow and hit the $1.4350 maximum, and the GBP/USD rate increased to the $1.6300 level.
Tuesday saw strengthening of the euro. Greece placed its bonds successfully. In addition, Euro-zone released strong statistics on that day. The PMI manufacturing and PMI services data of most of the European countries were above expectations. Negative US fundamentals supported the euro strengthening as well. Expectations for the increase of the ECB interest rate reinforced. The EUR/USD pair grew to the maximums of $1.4315.
The released on the same day Canadian Consumer Price index for March increased for 3.3% against the forecasted growth of 2.8%. As a result, the Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback.
The US real estate statistics, which was released on Tuesday, had a very positive impact on the market participants’ optimism. This influence lasted on Wednesday as well, and risky assets received substantial support. As a result, investors moved out their funds from the US dollar.
As a risky asset, the Australian dollar rate increased against the US dollar, and hit a new historical maximum. Canadian dollar rate grew against the American dollar due to the strong consumer price indices data, which was released in Canada a day before.
The GBP/USD pair grew and strengthened at the level of $1.6400. But this growth was only temporary, since after the release of the Bank of England meeting, the pound was under pressure. According to the expectations, the principal rate would not be increased at the next BoE meeting. Eventually, the sterling decreased to the $1.6300 range.
Meanwhile gold was renewing its historical maximums every day. On Wednesday the maximums was set at the level of $1504.50 per ounce against the background of the weakened US dollar.
Release of the strong Australian fundamentals supported the national currency on Thursday, and the Australian dollar hit a 29-year maximum against the US dollar. The Producer price index grew and turned out to be at the level of 1.2%, which was above the forecasted 1.0%. Expectations for the further increase of the interest rate reinforced.
Thursday saw continuing strengthening of the euro. The EUR/USD grew to the $1,4650 mark. But later during the day the US dollar rate rehabilitated and won back its previously lost positions.
The EUR/USD pair closed the week at the $1.4550 mark. The GBP/USD pair closed the week above the $1.6500 level.US dollar competitors strengthened as investors were leaving for a long weekend. On Friday the Financial markets of the US, Canada, European countries, Australia and New-Zealand will be closed due to the Easter holidays.
Weekly technical analysis for 25 – 29.04 EURUSD
The pair has risen to 1.46531 and rolling back to 1.44835. If 1.44835 is broken the pair will decline to 1.42923.
Resistance: 1.47697, 1.50676, 1.54340
Support: 1.44835, 1.41130, 1.37441
The pair has risen to Moving Average (200) at 1.65458 this is a resistance for the pair and rollback to 1.64274 may be expected. If the pair rises above Moving Average the pair will aim to 1.68504.
Resistance: 1.68504, 1.72652, 1.78085
Support: 1.64274, 1.59962, 1.52523
The pair has reached support level at 0.88022. The pair may roll back to 0.91074.
Resistance: 0.91074, 0.93264, 0.96525
Support: 0.88022, 0.85633, 0.82723
The pair has returned below 83.330. It may bring pair to decline to 80.244.
Resistance: 83.330, 86.836, 90.909
Support: 80.244, 76.535, 73.126
The pair has risen to resistance level at 1.07806. The indicators are in overbought zone. The corrections are possible. Strong support maybe met at 1.01873.
Resistance: 1.07806, 1.09604, 1.11831
Support: 1.05810, 1.03847, 1.01873